Season projections
Every remaining regular-season game simulated 2,000 times at the plate-appearance level, then 100,000 full-season replays through the playoff bracket. Model projections, not guarantees — how this works.
Updated weeklyLast run: July 14, 2026 · Next: July 20, 2026 · 986 games remaining · model v2.5.1
| Team | W-L | Proj W | Win range (5–95%) | Division | Wild card | Playoffs | Pennant | World Series ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles DodgersNL West | 61-36 | 100.5 | 99.5% | 0.4% | >99.9% | 40.3% | 27.5% | |
| Detroit TigersAL Central | 44-52 | 80.5 | 21.9% | 21.6% | 43.6% | 16.3% | 9.5% | |
| Philadelphia PhilliesNL East | 54-43 | 88.7 | 40.6% | 41.9% | 82.5% | 15.3% | 9.4% | |
| Tampa Bay RaysAL East | 56-38 | 91.7 | 67.3% | 30.5% | 97.8% | 22.9% | 9.0% | |
| Atlanta BravesNL East | 55-40 | 90.3 | 52.9% | 35.0% | 87.8% | 11.0% | 5.8% | |
| Texas RangersAL West | 49-47 | 82.9 | 47.0% | 17.8% | 64.8% | 13.2% | 5.3% | |
| Milwaukee BrewersNL Central | 59-37 | 93.0 | 71.8% | 23.6% | 95.4% | 11.0% | 5.3% | |
| Chicago CubsNL Central | 54-42 | 87.2 | 19.9% | 50.4% | 70.3% | 8.6% | 4.8% | |
| New York YankeesAL East | 54-42 | 88.8 | 29.9% | 62.5% | 92.4% | 11.7% | 3.8% | |
| Houston AstrosAL West | 47-51 | 80.5 | 24.3% | 19.8% | 44.0% | 7.9% | 3.2% | |
| Pittsburgh PiratesNL Central | 50-47 | 82.2 | 4.1% | 28.0% | 32.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | |
| Arizona DiamondbacksNL West | 49-47 | 83.0 | 0.4% | 36.3% | 36.7% | 4.1% | 2.3% | |
| Chicago White SoxAL Central | 50-45 | 83.1 | 38.0% | 21.4% | 59.4% | 7.1% | 2.2% | |
| Seattle MarinersAL West | 48-49 | 81.3 | 27.9% | 19.9% | 47.8% | 6.1% | 2.0% | |
| Minnesota TwinsAL Central | 48-49 | 80.1 | 17.8% | 18.1% | 35.9% | 4.3% | 1.4% | |
| St. Louis CardinalsNL Central | 50-45 | 83.2 | 4.2% | 31.6% | 35.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | |
| Boston Red SoxAL East | 46-48 | 79.1 | 1.4% | 28.0% | 29.3% | 3.3% | 1.2% | |
| Cleveland GuardiansAL Central | 51-46 | 81.3 | 22.2% | 20.8% | 43.0% | 3.9% | 1.1% | |
| Toronto Blue JaysAL East | 45-51 | 78.1 | 0.8% | 20.5% | 21.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | |
| Miami MarlinsNL East | 52-45 | 82.2 | 4.6% | 21.7% | 26.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | |
| Baltimore OriolesAL East | 46-51 | 78.0 | 0.6% | 18.0% | 18.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| San Diego PadresNL West | 48-48 | 80.3 | 0.1% | 15.5% | 15.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| Washington NationalsNL East | 48-49 | 80.0 | 1.9% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| Cincinnati RedsNL Central | 43-52 | 75.2 | <0.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% | |
| Los Angeles AngelsAL West | 38-59 | 68.9 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
| AthleticsAL West | 41-55 | 70.6 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
| Kansas City RoyalsAL Central | 38-59 | 68.7 | <0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
| New York MetsNL East | 40-57 | 72.3 | <0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
| San Francisco GiantsNL West | 41-55 | 73.2 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
| Colorado RockiesNL West | 39-59 | 65.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Wild card = reaches the postseason without winning the division. Postseason series use team-strength ratings (October rotations are unknowable in advance). Lineups and bullpens as of the run date; injuries and trades are reflected at the next weekly run.