Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

AL Championship Series · Game 3 · October 15, 2026 · Griffin Jax vs Gavin Williams · 61°F

5.3% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays win

50.5%

Cleveland Guardians win

49.5%

Fair line (home)

+102

Proj. total

7.32

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 3.79)Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.53)

Totals

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

7.32

Over

53.7%

Under

46.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	50.5%	+117	-102
Cleveland Guardians	49.5%	-126	+102

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Griffin Jax RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	3.3	3.1	3.0	1.3	1.2
Gavin Williams RHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.4	5.6	4.8	2.1	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Griffin Jax4+ 37%6+ 7%8+ 1%

Gavin Williams4+ 83%6+ 50%8+ 18%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.8	.794	.178	.010	.139	.467	.960	.264	.344	.409	.753
Jonathan Aranda	4.6	.652	.161	.003	.124	.505	1.420	.231	.325	.363	.688
Junior Caminero	4.5	.606	.154	.006	.245	.436	1.098	.249	.326	.471	.796
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.4	.585	.157	.030	.129	.347	1.176	.222	.288	.372	.659
Chandler Simpson	4.3	.963	.123	.039	.011	.239	.561	.280	.321	.338	.659
Liam Hicks	4.2	.638	.124	.011	.087	.481	.737	.236	.336	.347	.684
Jonny DeLuca	4.1	.546	.167	.014	.100	.265	1.105	.218	.275	.348	.623
Richie Palacios	4.0	.523	.130	.017	.072	.461	.961	.213	.312	.323	.634
Taylor Walls	3.9	.467	.121	.021	.036	.415	1.199	.188	.279	.266	.546

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.5	.813	.166	.016	.054	.478	.495	.263	.346	.354	.700
José Ramírez	4.4	.629	.188	.011	.145	.409	.635	.247	.323	.410	.733
Chase DeLauter	4.3	.677	.196	.021	.125	.416	.751	.265	.340	.424	.764
Jo Adell	4.2	.531	.148	.010	.166	.250	1.163	.222	.282	.394	.676
Nathaniel Lowe	4.1	.575	.138	.006	.114	.419	1.085	.229	.313	.365	.678
Travis Bazzana	4.0	.514	.152	.024	.091	.422	1.007	.222	.312	.357	.670
Patrick Bailey	3.9	.535	.108	.015	.082	.285	1.134	.208	.272	.316	.588
Petey Halpin	3.7	.532	.125	.027	.073	.226	.996	.217	.269	.331	.600
Brayan Rocchio	3.6	.529	.141	.013	.072	.249	.667	.229	.293	.345	.639

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections