Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

NL Championship Series · Game 4 · October 15, 2026 · Shane Drohan vs Tyler Glasnow · 75°F

5.8% edge · Los Angeles Dodgers

Milwaukee Brewers win

36.1%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

63.9%

Fair line (home)

-177

Proj. total

8.89

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 3.87)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.03)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.89

Over

49.4%

Under

42.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	36.1%	+134	+177
Los Angeles Dodgers	63.9%	-146	-177

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Shane Drohan LHP · Milwaukee Brewers	3.6	3.1	3.8	1.7	2.0
Tyler Glasnow RHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.1	6.5	4.3	2.2	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Shane Drohan4+ 37%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Tyler Glasnow4+ 91%6+ 66%8+ 33%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	4.8	.664	.195	.011	.204	.378	1.336	.247	.310	.437	.748
Brice Turang	4.6	.641	.164	.015	.113	.533	1.379	.228	.319	.358	.678
William Contreras	4.5	.652	.167	.005	.145	.547	1.018	.245	.340	.400	.741
Jake Bauers	4.4	.446	.113	.011	.179	.656	1.528	.200	.324	.381	.705
Christian Yelich	4.3	.562	.131	.010	.132	.509	1.354	.221	.318	.365	.683
Garrett Mitchell	4.2	.499	.156	.022	.108	.466	1.582	.212	.305	.353	.658
Cooper Pratt	4.1	.571	.120	.028	.082	.399	1.016	.218	.300	.332	.632
Sal Frelick	4.0	.642	.151	.010	.065	.372	.697	.242	.319	.344	.663
David Hamilton	3.9	.466	.105	.021	.084	.345	1.156	.193	.268	.306	.575

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shohei Ohtani	4.7	.572	.165	.035	.300	.695	1.157	.273	.388	.563	.951
Mookie Betts	4.5	.703	.209	.011	.192	.511	.540	.279	.365	.480	.845
Freddie Freeman	4.4	.736	.214	.012	.144	.497	.839	.285	.373	.457	.830
Will Smith	4.3	.633	.162	.009	.172	.539	.828	.261	.363	.447	.810
Kyle Tucker	4.2	.588	.155	.022	.180	.603	.696	.263	.372	.468	.840
Teoscar Hernández	4.1	.596	.162	.014	.196	.336	1.148	.257	.324	.464	.788
Miguel Rojas	4.0	.685	.194	.004	.082	.286	.539	.261	.320	.382	.703
Andy Pages	3.9	.585	.161	.012	.163	.300	.817	.260	.327	.451	.777
Enrique Hernández	3.8	.518	.147	.007	.115	.280	.931	.226	.286	.371	.657

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections