San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

August 3, 2026 · Michael King vs Brandon Pfaadt · 85°F

1.0% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres win

48.2%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

51.8%

Fair line (home)

-108

Proj. total

9.7

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.85)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.85)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.7

Over

46.8%

Under

43.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	48.2%	-101	+108
Arizona Diamondbacks	51.8%	-108	-108

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.9	.854	.235	.015	.199	.440	.861	.297	.367	.493	.860
Jake Cronenworth	4.8	.725	.201	.021	.115	.464	.853	.252	.338	.391	.729
Manny Machado	4.7	.758	.200	.002	.212	.379	.869	.275	.337	.472	.809
Ty France	4.5	.788	.184	.017	.134	.262	.840	.270	.333	.419	.751
Jackson Merrill	4.4	.746	.213	.028	.157	.275	.873	.276	.324	.455	.779
Luis Rengifo	4.3	.800	.165	.020	.093	.279	.648	.269	.323	.389	.712
Luis Campusano	4.2	.704	.166	.008	.157	.380	.779	.272	.344	.444	.788
Xander Bogaerts	4.1	.775	.176	.005	.101	.339	.668	.283	.347	.414	.761
Sung-Mun Song	4.0	.743	.153	.012	.081	.277	.632	.266	.319	.379	.699

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Corbin Carroll	4.7	.623	.181	.102	.205	.565	1.032	.271	.368	.516	.883
Geraldo Perdomo	4.6	.781	.171	.040	.100	.614	.623	.278	.382	.417	.800
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.817	.214	.010	.120	.497	.782	.294	.379	.444	.823
Ketel Marte	4.4	.715	.200	.027	.196	.450	.712	.292	.372	.509	.881
Max Kepler	4.3	.638	.173	.015	.137	.431	.918	.253	.335	.414	.750
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.653	.179	.008	.142	.323	.765	.258	.322	.421	.743
Adrian Del Castillo	4.1	.552	.181	.012	.131	.358	1.144	.238	.311	.401	.712
Tim Tawa	4.0	.541	.151	.023	.122	.368	.986	.236	.313	.394	.707
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.8	.577	.163	.026	.064	.413	1.015	.246	.338	.367	.705

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections