Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

July 4, 2026 · Brandon Woodruff vs Merrill Kelly · 85°F

7.8% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Milwaukee Brewers win

51.5%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

48.4%

Fair line (home)

+106

Proj. total

9.59

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 5.01)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.58)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.59

Over

46.2%

Under

53.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	51.5%	-153	-106
Arizona Diamondbacks	48.4%	+141	+106

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brice Turang	4.9	.866	.207	.022	.138	.530	.949	.280	.360	.431	.791
Christian Yelich	4.8	.840	.187	.016	.158	.501	1.063	.279	.357	.440	.797
Jake Bauers	4.7	.660	.178	.008	.218	.584	1.167	.259	.356	.466	.823
William Contreras	4.6	.824	.213	.005	.158	.504	.709	.294	.374	.464	.838
Garrett Mitchell	4.5	.667	.191	.031	.122	.492	1.340	.254	.341	.409	.749
Andrew Vaughn	4.4	.729	.203	.013	.160	.316	.738	.273	.332	.449	.781
Sal Frelick	4.3	.843	.179	.019	.078	.367	.510	.288	.353	.404	.757
Cooper Pratt	4.2	.663	.144	.027	.067	.389	.747	.240	.317	.346	.663
Joey Ortiz	4.1	.697	.185	.018	.082	.333	.611	.265	.330	.390	.720

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ketel Marte	4.6	.733	.192	.024	.229	.428	.807	.283	.357	.505	.862
Geraldo Perdomo	4.5	.763	.173	.045	.106	.502	.637	.274	.363	.421	.784
Corbin Carroll	4.4	.586	.172	.087	.212	.463	.961	.271	.356	.523	.879
Gabriel Moreno	4.3	.772	.190	.011	.138	.388	.795	.285	.355	.446	.802
Adrian Del Castillo	4.2	.551	.175	.012	.139	.322	1.265	.227	.291	.387	.678
Nolan Arenado	4.1	.647	.172	.007	.146	.281	.711	.257	.316	.422	.738
Max Kepler	4.0	.590	.159	.018	.130	.354	.840	.249	.323	.412	.734
Ildemaro Vargas	3.9	.706	.155	.033	.090	.181	.460	.270	.312	.404	.716
Tommy Troy	3.8	.609	.149	.029	.067	.315	.892	.251	.321	.371	.692

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections