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3.9% edge · Arizona DiamondbacksMilwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds
July 3, 2026 · Kyle Harrison vs Jose Cabrera · 85°F
Milwaukee Brewers win
52.1%
Arizona Diamondbacks win
47.9%
Fair line (home)
+109
Proj. total
9.94
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Milwaukee Brewers (mean 5.21)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.73)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
9.94
Over
58.8%
Under
41.2%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 52.1% | -134 | -109 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 47.9% | +123 | +109 |
Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 5.0 | .869 | .199 | .018 | .164 | .568 | 1.004 | .286 | .373 | .452 | .826 |
| Jackson Chourio | 4.9 | .861 | .252 | .021 | .210 | .344 | .830 | .298 | .352 | .503 | .855 |
| Brice Turang | 4.8 | .842 | .195 | .025 | .126 | .538 | .822 | .283 | .367 | .430 | .797 |
| William Contreras | 4.7 | .838 | .207 | .006 | .149 | .531 | .652 | .294 | .379 | .457 | .836 |
| Jake Bauers | 4.5 | .623 | .176 | .009 | .198 | .600 | 1.028 | .258 | .362 | .459 | .821 |
| Garrett Mitchell | 4.4 | .653 | .190 | .031 | .117 | .510 | 1.221 | .255 | .348 | .410 | .758 |
| Sal Frelick | 4.3 | .856 | .180 | .019 | .079 | .365 | .468 | .289 | .356 | .405 | .761 |
| Cooper Pratt | 4.2 | .669 | .135 | .032 | .063 | .398 | .692 | .239 | .319 | .342 | .661 |
| David Hamilton | 4.1 | .633 | .134 | .025 | .101 | .383 | .829 | .242 | .319 | .374 | .692 |
Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte | 4.7 | .724 | .193 | .016 | .213 | .486 | .842 | .275 | .360 | .483 | .843 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 4.6 | .769 | .168 | .026 | .095 | .553 | .672 | .266 | .365 | .393 | .758 |
| Corbin Carroll | 4.5 | .554 | .164 | .086 | .205 | .551 | 1.020 | .260 | .361 | .506 | .867 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 4.4 | .757 | .191 | .010 | .132 | .468 | .833 | .282 | .364 | .439 | .803 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 4.3 | .727 | .188 | .015 | .148 | .285 | .767 | .273 | .329 | .441 | .770 |
| Nolan Arenado | 4.2 | .652 | .172 | .010 | .151 | .341 | .737 | .261 | .329 | .431 | .760 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 4.0 | .736 | .144 | .030 | .076 | .217 | .513 | .261 | .310 | .376 | .686 |
| LuJames Groover | 3.9 | .674 | .168 | .011 | .075 | .396 | .809 | .265 | .347 | .384 | .732 |
| Tommy Troy | 3.8 | .626 | .146 | .028 | .064 | .364 | .916 | .252 | .331 | .367 | .698 |
Data notes: home starter Jose Cabrera: only 23 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Jose Cabrera: only 18 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections