St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

July 17, 2026 · Michael McGreevy vs Merrill Kelly · 85°F

0.1% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

48.7%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

51.3%

Fair line (home)

-105

Proj. total

10.36

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 5.26)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.11)

O/U line

Proj. total

10.36

Over

52.4%

Under

37.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	48.7%	+102	+105
Arizona Diamondbacks	51.3%	-110	-105

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.9	.906	.203	.009	.167	.466	.682	.292	.369	.456	.825
Iván Herrera	4.8	.872	.188	.013	.164	.515	.753	.293	.382	.460	.843
Alec Burleson	4.7	.886	.216	.015	.206	.338	.590	.303	.358	.501	.859
Jordan Walker	4.6	.761	.222	.010	.209	.349	1.040	.283	.342	.488	.830
Lars Nootbaar	4.5	.705	.190	.016	.156	.551	.800	.271	.364	.446	.809
Masyn Winn	4.4	.801	.208	.024	.110	.317	.668	.282	.339	.426	.765
Nathan Church	4.3	.799	.175	.022	.110	.251	.647	.276	.323	.412	.736
José Fermín	4.2	.710	.199	.006	.089	.403	.477	.269	.347	.397	.744
Jimmy Crooks	4.1	.621	.151	.011	.125	.313	1.050	.245	.310	.392	.703

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ketel Marte	4.7	.870	.244	.037	.195	.381	.545	.313	.375	.523	.898
Geraldo Perdomo	4.6	.883	.191	.042	.092	.476	.458	.296	.375	.430	.805
Corbin Carroll	4.5	.684	.203	.112	.189	.433	.760	.296	.371	.543	.914
Gabriel Moreno	4.4	.918	.226	.013	.105	.370	.558	.316	.379	.458	.837
Max Kepler	4.3	.723	.200	.020	.130	.339	.696	.274	.337	.435	.772
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	4.2	.799	.219	.016	.128	.211	.539	.295	.337	.457	.794
Nolan Arenado	4.1	.731	.198	.008	.127	.251	.557	.280	.330	.437	.767
Ildemaro Vargas	4.0	.808	.172	.038	.064	.193	.329	.289	.329	.406	.736
Tim Tawa	3.9	.603	.169	.023	.115	.286	.751	.257	.317	.415	.732

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections