St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

July 18, 2026 · Dustin May vs Brandon Pfaadt · 85°F

1.9% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

St. Louis Cardinals win

46.2%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

53.8%

Fair line (home)

-117

Proj. total

9.94

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.91)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.04)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.94

Over

59.0%

Under

41.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	46.2%	+104	+117
Arizona Diamondbacks	53.8%	-113	-117

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.9	.880	.195	.009	.149	.427	.730	.281	.357	.432	.789
Iván Herrera	4.8	.856	.189	.013	.160	.463	.806	.290	.376	.455	.831
Alec Burleson	4.7	.857	.205	.012	.197	.320	.612	.294	.348	.484	.832
Jordan Walker	4.6	.746	.211	.008	.193	.329	1.073	.276	.334	.468	.802
Lars Nootbaar	4.5	.697	.195	.020	.139	.515	.828	.269	.358	.436	.793
Masyn Winn	4.3	.799	.193	.021	.094	.297	.711	.276	.333	.405	.738
Nathan Church	4.2	.772	.168	.022	.099	.234	.663	.267	.315	.396	.710
José Fermín	4.1	.682	.193	.007	.087	.388	.498	.263	.342	.389	.731
Pedro Pagés	4.0	.636	.146	.007	.121	.239	.948	.243	.295	.383	.679

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ketel Marte	4.8	.804	.227	.032	.202	.464	.690	.300	.377	.512	.889
Geraldo Perdomo	4.6	.840	.183	.044	.091	.577	.560	.291	.390	.428	.818
Corbin Carroll	4.5	.637	.196	.103	.173	.514	.904	.282	.374	.516	.890
Gabriel Moreno	4.4	.857	.211	.012	.114	.459	.672	.306	.385	.454	.839
Max Kepler	4.3	.687	.193	.017	.127	.401	.815	.266	.343	.424	.766
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.712	.190	.009	.132	.306	.669	.271	.332	.427	.759
Tim Tawa	4.1	.597	.159	.025	.120	.351	.928	.244	.316	.398	.714
James McCann	4.0	.674	.182	.009	.110	.210	.913	.262	.310	.405	.715
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.9	.628	.181	.033	.060	.382	.912	.265	.351	.390	.742

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections