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2.7% edge · Arizona DiamondbacksAthletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds
July 20, 2026 · Jeffrey Springs vs Mitch Bratt · 85°F
Athletics win
41.1%
Arizona Diamondbacks win
58.9%
Fair line (home)
-144
Proj. total
9.82
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Athletics (mean 4.55)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.27)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
9.82
Over
47.4%
Under
42.4%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 41.1% | +124 | +144 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.9% | -135 | -144 |
Athletics — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Wilson | 4.8 | 1.004 | .256 | .009 | .102 | .249 | .406 | .304 | .347 | .433 | .780 |
| Tyler Soderstrom | 4.7 | .682 | .226 | .016 | .211 | .442 | .888 | .271 | .346 | .483 | .829 |
| Shea Langeliers | 4.6 | .653 | .214 | .008 | .249 | .323 | .949 | .266 | .323 | .497 | .821 |
| Colby Thomas | 4.5 | .640 | .228 | .013 | .169 | .230 | 1.237 | .251 | .299 | .433 | .732 |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer | 4.4 | .929 | .234 | .021 | .045 | .203 | .442 | .299 | .339 | .399 | .738 |
| Jonah Heim | 4.3 | .656 | .159 | .005 | .141 | .277 | .759 | .243 | .297 | .392 | .689 |
| Tommy White | 4.2 | .764 | .197 | .014 | .095 | .168 | .668 | .272 | .308 | .402 | .710 |
| Alika Williams | 4.0 | .698 | .181 | .018 | .068 | .240 | .806 | .257 | .308 | .369 | .678 |
| Henry Bolte | 3.9 | .691 | .169 | .026 | .105 | .288 | 1.082 | .277 | .340 | .426 | .766 |
Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte | 4.7 | .831 | .233 | .022 | .258 | .448 | .626 | .316 | .388 | .564 | .951 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 4.6 | .861 | .195 | .029 | .123 | .523 | .523 | .298 | .385 | .452 | .838 |
| Tim Tawa | 4.5 | .687 | .202 | .032 | .181 | .395 | .955 | .269 | .338 | .468 | .805 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 4.4 | .869 | .219 | .011 | .144 | .443 | .632 | .316 | .390 | .488 | .878 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 4.3 | .866 | .189 | .031 | .096 | .233 | .405 | .293 | .337 | .427 | .764 |
| Nolan Arenado | 4.2 | .717 | .194 | .009 | .181 | .318 | .636 | .287 | .346 | .483 | .830 |
| Tyler Locklear | 4.1 | .694 | .192 | .018 | .143 | .345 | .943 | .284 | .355 | .463 | .818 |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | 4.0 | .667 | .193 | .033 | .081 | .405 | .926 | .276 | .358 | .418 | .776 |
| Jorge Barrosa | 3.9 | .608 | .190 | .015 | .074 | .300 | .853 | .251 | .314 | .376 | .689 |
Data notes: home starter Mitch Bratt: only 10 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Mitch Bratt: only 18 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections