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2.6% edge · Arizona DiamondbacksAthletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds
July 21, 2026 · Jack Perkins vs Kohl Drake · 85°F
Athletics win
42.4%
Arizona Diamondbacks win
57.6%
Fair line (home)
-136
Proj. total
10.12
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Athletics (mean 4.77)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.36)
Totals
O/U line
9.5
Proj. total
10.12
Over
50.0%
Under
50.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 42.4% | +118 | +136 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 57.6% | -128 | -136 |
Athletics — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Wilson | 4.8 | 1.032 | .264 | .009 | .111 | .281 | .393 | .314 | .361 | .450 | .811 |
| Tyler Soderstrom | 4.7 | .703 | .231 | .021 | .216 | .478 | .860 | .278 | .358 | .497 | .855 |
| Shea Langeliers | 4.6 | .668 | .220 | .006 | .255 | .364 | .906 | .272 | .336 | .509 | .844 |
| Jonah Heim | 4.5 | .697 | .172 | .005 | .142 | .323 | .775 | .244 | .303 | .391 | .694 |
| Tommy White | 4.4 | .818 | .212 | .015 | .104 | .191 | .666 | .276 | .314 | .410 | .724 |
| Max Muncy | 4.3 | .647 | .195 | .025 | .127 | .270 | 1.194 | .251 | .309 | .409 | .718 |
| Henry Bolte | 4.2 | .715 | .176 | .026 | .107 | .338 | 1.125 | .271 | .340 | .417 | .757 |
| Lawrence Butler | 4.1 | .593 | .183 | .011 | .143 | .387 | .959 | .253 | .327 | .426 | .753 |
| Alika Williams | 4.0 | .690 | .184 | .016 | .065 | .255 | .761 | .261 | .315 | .373 | .688 |
Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte | 4.8 | .800 | .224 | .030 | .230 | .539 | .697 | .307 | .393 | .539 | .932 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 4.7 | .825 | .180 | .038 | .105 | .655 | .590 | .290 | .399 | .434 | .833 |
| Corbin Carroll | 4.6 | .620 | .185 | .102 | .208 | .597 | .913 | .286 | .389 | .545 | .934 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 4.5 | .853 | .212 | .011 | .121 | .524 | .707 | .308 | .395 | .461 | .857 |
| Max Kepler | 4.3 | .663 | .188 | .019 | .141 | .472 | .855 | .264 | .351 | .433 | .784 |
| Nolan Arenado | 4.2 | .701 | .194 | .009 | .151 | .365 | .699 | .276 | .346 | .449 | .795 |
| Tim Tawa | 4.1 | .593 | .171 | .025 | .137 | .425 | .940 | .252 | .335 | .424 | .759 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 4.0 | .784 | .174 | .038 | .076 | .274 | .406 | .289 | .344 | .418 | .762 |
| Jorge Barrosa | 3.9 | .590 | .178 | .022 | .065 | .378 | .931 | .244 | .323 | .364 | .687 |
Data notes: home starter Kohl Drake: only 0 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Kohl Drake: only 0 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections