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0.2% edge · Arizona DiamondbacksAthletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds
July 22, 2026 · Gage Jump vs Merrill Kelly · 85°F
Athletics win
45.6%
Arizona Diamondbacks win
54.4%
Fair line (home)
-119
Proj. total
10.51
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Athletics (mean 5.17)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.34)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
10.51
Over
53.5%
Under
36.4%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 45.6% | +114 | +119 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 54.4% | -123 | -119 |
Athletics — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Wilson | 4.9 | 1.052 | .278 | .010 | .115 | .279 | .389 | .317 | .361 | .457 | .818 |
| Tyler Soderstrom | 4.8 | .719 | .246 | .019 | .236 | .463 | .827 | .284 | .358 | .515 | .874 |
| Shea Langeliers | 4.7 | .692 | .223 | .006 | .281 | .356 | .877 | .280 | .340 | .532 | .872 |
| Carlos Cortes | 4.6 | .748 | .231 | .019 | .157 | .392 | .722 | .279 | .344 | .457 | .801 |
| Donovan Walton | 4.5 | .788 | .182 | .012 | .101 | .358 | .670 | .267 | .332 | .393 | .725 |
| Tommy White | 4.3 | .833 | .225 | .017 | .113 | .196 | .637 | .289 | .327 | .434 | .761 |
| Jeff McNeil | 4.2 | .775 | .201 | .022 | .096 | .321 | .445 | .283 | .346 | .421 | .767 |
| Lawrence Butler | 4.1 | .624 | .201 | .011 | .160 | .387 | .897 | .267 | .337 | .455 | .792 |
| Jonah Heim | 4.0 | .637 | .158 | .006 | .142 | .285 | .666 | .254 | .311 | .415 | .727 |
Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte | 4.8 | .819 | .224 | .022 | .235 | .469 | .674 | .305 | .382 | .533 | .916 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 4.7 | .854 | .196 | .031 | .103 | .581 | .569 | .294 | .392 | .435 | .827 |
| Corbin Carroll | 4.6 | .642 | .193 | .109 | .202 | .550 | .879 | .290 | .385 | .547 | .932 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 4.5 | .885 | .223 | .013 | .127 | .483 | .655 | .318 | .398 | .478 | .876 |
| Nolan Arenado | 4.3 | .753 | .198 | .011 | .158 | .342 | .694 | .282 | .346 | .457 | .803 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 4.2 | .839 | .182 | .028 | .087 | .243 | .426 | .288 | .337 | .414 | .751 |
| James McCann | 4.1 | .715 | .200 | .009 | .120 | .218 | .949 | .270 | .318 | .419 | .737 |
| Tim Tawa | 4.0 | .592 | .174 | .023 | .138 | .373 | .900 | .256 | .331 | .431 | .762 |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | 3.9 | .645 | .184 | .032 | .071 | .416 | .935 | .272 | .361 | .407 | .768 |
Data notes: away starter Gage Jump: only 63 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections