San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

August 4, 2026 · Randy Vásquez vs Eduardo Rodriguez · 85°F

3.7% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres win

45.0%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

55.0%

Fair line (home)

-122

Proj. total

9.98

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.81)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.17)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.98

Over

48.9%

Under

40.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	45.0%	+101	+122
Arizona Diamondbacks	55.0%	-110	-122

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.9	.848	.224	.014	.201	.511	.821	.297	.376	.494	.870
Luis Rengifo	4.8	.896	.191	.013	.099	.312	.693	.272	.325	.388	.713
Manny Machado	4.7	.737	.206	.003	.224	.426	.821	.278	.346	.488	.834
Ty France	4.5	.802	.184	.018	.134	.293	.795	.274	.337	.424	.760
Jackson Merrill	4.4	.731	.207	.031	.162	.314	.846	.276	.331	.461	.791
Xander Bogaerts	4.3	.820	.184	.005	.112	.395	.667	.287	.356	.422	.778
Freddy Fermin	4.2	.722	.165	.004	.103	.325	.737	.257	.318	.381	.700
Jake Cronenworth	4.1	.612	.171	.017	.102	.453	.729	.250	.343	.392	.735
Jase Bowen	4.0	.600	.146	.031	.106	.255	1.064	.237	.291	.379	.670

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Corbin Carroll	4.8	.659	.197	.102	.221	.559	.876	.286	.379	.543	.922
Geraldo Perdomo	4.6	.819	.180	.041	.108	.592	.520	.288	.387	.435	.822
Max Kepler	4.5	.709	.200	.016	.149	.439	.814	.266	.344	.434	.778
Ketel Marte	4.4	.724	.207	.025	.215	.454	.596	.300	.380	.532	.912
Nolan Arenado	4.3	.705	.199	.009	.162	.333	.651	.274	.338	.454	.792
Lars Nootbaar	4.2	.645	.172	.017	.149	.576	.749	.274	.378	.456	.834
Tim Tawa	4.1	.580	.168	.023	.139	.358	.898	.246	.317	.416	.733
James McCann	4.0	.650	.181	.009	.115	.223	.892	.258	.309	.405	.714
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.9	.603	.183	.029	.073	.411	.904	.263	.354	.399	.752

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections