San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

August 6, 2026 · Walker Buehler vs Kohl Drake · 85°F

6.4% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres win

43.4%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

56.6%

Fair line (home)

-131

Proj. total

10.02

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.75)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.27)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.02

Over

49.6%

Under

40.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	43.4%	-103	+131
Arizona Diamondbacks	56.6%	-105	-131

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.9	.860	.230	.015	.187	.502	.848	.298	.376	.487	.862
Luis Rengifo	4.8	.878	.182	.015	.097	.304	.712	.266	.320	.380	.699
Manny Machado	4.7	.723	.196	.003	.211	.430	.878	.269	.339	.468	.807
Ty France	4.5	.789	.185	.015	.135	.281	.832	.271	.336	.421	.757
Jackson Merrill	4.4	.714	.210	.029	.149	.301	.893	.268	.321	.442	.763
Xander Bogaerts	4.3	.797	.187	.004	.110	.393	.689	.281	.351	.415	.766
Gavin Sheets	4.2	.636	.181	.005	.144	.380	.785	.254	.328	.419	.747
Freddy Fermin	4.1	.690	.160	.004	.093	.317	.736	.252	.315	.371	.686
Jake Cronenworth	4.0	.588	.164	.017	.088	.439	.724	.245	.340	.378	.718

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Geraldo Perdomo	4.8	.853	.189	.042	.100	.643	.591	.290	.394	.430	.824
Corbin Carroll	4.7	.632	.185	.098	.207	.575	.934	.278	.376	.526	.902
Gabriel Moreno	4.6	.865	.212	.011	.117	.499	.714	.300	.383	.446	.829
Ketel Marte	4.5	.740	.208	.026	.204	.478	.662	.300	.384	.523	.906
Lars Nootbaar	4.3	.640	.177	.017	.146	.597	.845	.264	.370	.439	.808
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.684	.185	.010	.146	.334	.699	.265	.330	.432	.762
Max Kepler	4.1	.619	.182	.020	.131	.421	.826	.260	.343	.427	.770
Tim Tawa	4.0	.559	.165	.024	.123	.384	.926	.242	.320	.404	.724
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.9	.603	.175	.029	.063	.429	.969	.256	.350	.380	.729

Data notes: home starter Kohl Drake: only 19 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Kohl Drake: only 40 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections