San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

August 5, 2026 · Casey Mize vs Mitch Bratt · 85°F

6.0% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres win

49.4%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

50.6%

Fair line (home)

-103

Proj. total

9.06

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.58)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.48)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.06

Over

51.2%

Under

48.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	49.4%	-130	+103
Arizona Diamondbacks	50.6%	+120	-103

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.836	.227	.014	.199	.419	.900	.292	.360	.487	.847
Luis Rengifo	4.7	.876	.179	.012	.098	.263	.749	.265	.313	.378	.691
Manny Machado	4.6	.714	.190	.002	.211	.373	.906	.265	.327	.462	.790
Ty France	4.5	.769	.184	.018	.132	.248	.855	.268	.328	.417	.745
Jackson Merrill	4.4	.698	.200	.033	.152	.261	.896	.264	.312	.441	.753
Xander Bogaerts	4.3	.787	.183	.004	.110	.341	.724	.278	.341	.411	.752
Luis Campusano	4.2	.666	.169	.006	.155	.361	.799	.264	.335	.436	.771
Jake Cronenworth	4.0	.598	.170	.015	.096	.393	.775	.245	.330	.380	.710
Jase Bowen	3.9	.572	.138	.029	.100	.220	1.140	.227	.277	.362	.639

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	4.7	.710	.187	.021	.154	.539	.969	.262	.352	.431	.783
Corbin Carroll	4.5	.619	.186	.105	.199	.476	.985	.276	.359	.523	.882
Geraldo Perdomo	4.4	.793	.167	.038	.096	.491	.601	.280	.367	.417	.784
Gabriel Moreno	4.3	.804	.201	.012	.114	.416	.733	.292	.365	.438	.803
Tim Tawa	4.2	.586	.167	.023	.132	.335	1.042	.235	.300	.392	.693
Ildemaro Vargas	4.1	.777	.169	.042	.081	.220	.465	.277	.321	.404	.726
James McCann	4.0	.648	.180	.009	.109	.197	1.025	.251	.295	.391	.686
Tyler Locklear	3.9	.616	.173	.015	.109	.303	1.033	.258	.326	.408	.734
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.8	.586	.167	.028	.060	.349	1.005	.249	.328	.368	.697

Data notes: home starter Mitch Bratt: only 30 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Mitch Bratt: only 68 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections