Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

August 7, 2026 · Roki Sasaki vs Merrill Kelly · 85°F

4.8% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Los Angeles Dodgers win

56.9%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

43.1%

Fair line (home)

+132

Proj. total

11.09

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 6.03)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.06)

O/U line

Proj. total

11.09

Over

58.0%

Under

32.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Dodgers	56.9%	-170	-132
Arizona Diamondbacks	43.1%	+156	+132

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shohei Ohtani	5.0	.710	.203	.046	.351	.709	1.042	.305	.407	.619	1.026
Andy Pages	4.9	.815	.244	.011	.228	.317	.881	.284	.337	.492	.829
Freddie Freeman	4.8	.867	.255	.016	.194	.503	.738	.312	.390	.515	.905
Max Muncy	4.7	.597	.168	.017	.247	.662	.988	.257	.369	.492	.861
Mookie Betts	4.6	.782	.224	.020	.186	.469	.455	.295	.371	.496	.866
Kyle Tucker	4.5	.701	.187	.023	.196	.585	.658	.286	.383	.497	.880
Teoscar Hernández	4.4	.713	.192	.009	.212	.311	1.028	.279	.335	.488	.823
Tommy Edman	4.3	.749	.167	.029	.118	.283	.716	.269	.324	.417	.741
Hunter Feduccia	4.2	.621	.168	.026	.076	.457	1.009	.243	.329	.365	.694

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Geraldo Perdomo	4.8	.790	.174	.035	.111	.647	.657	.273	.381	.415	.797
Corbin Carroll	4.7	.588	.177	.091	.215	.585	1.025	.267	.369	.517	.886
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.804	.208	.011	.129	.521	.788	.289	.377	.444	.821
Ketel Marte	4.4	.677	.193	.025	.220	.488	.709	.286	.373	.518	.891
Lars Nootbaar	4.3	.609	.164	.015	.155	.613	.922	.256	.367	.434	.801
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.651	.176	.008	.157	.349	.765	.258	.328	.431	.759
Max Kepler	4.1	.577	.170	.014	.137	.412	.894	.244	.328	.410	.738
Tim Tawa	4.0	.508	.148	.019	.134	.374	1.031	.225	.305	.388	.693
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.9	.555	.159	.027	.072	.425	1.069	.239	.335	.365	.700

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections