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2.5% edge · Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds
August 10, 2026 · Gabriel Hughes vs Michael Soroka · 85°F
Colorado Rockies win
37.7%
Arizona Diamondbacks win
62.3%
Fair line (home)
-165
Proj. total
11.03
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Colorado Rockies (mean 4.96)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 6.06)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
11.03
Over
67.0%
Under
33.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 37.7% | +178 | +165 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 62.3% | -196 | -165 |
Colorado Rockies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCarthy | 4.9 | .921 | .201 | .076 | .117 | .309 | .797 | .293 | .350 | .450 | .800 |
| Cole Carrigg | 4.8 | .834 | .185 | .080 | .112 | .332 | 1.000 | .277 | .338 | .433 | .771 |
| TJ Rumfield | 4.7 | .822 | .208 | .016 | .128 | .407 | .777 | .281 | .356 | .431 | .786 |
| Hunter Goodman | 4.5 | .616 | .215 | .023 | .258 | .307 | 1.219 | .266 | .323 | .513 | .836 |
| Mickey Moniak | 4.4 | .683 | .185 | .049 | .201 | .222 | 1.071 | .268 | .311 | .480 | .791 |
| Kyle Karros | 4.3 | .746 | .220 | .027 | .098 | .433 | .900 | .284 | .364 | .432 | .796 |
| Willi Castro | 4.2 | .715 | .167 | .025 | .095 | .325 | .970 | .264 | .341 | .396 | .737 |
| Troy Johnston | 4.1 | .737 | .204 | .016 | .094 | .279 | .771 | .279 | .342 | .417 | .759 |
| Jordan Beck | 4.0 | .625 | .172 | .036 | .104 | .291 | 1.056 | .254 | .314 | .405 | .719 |
Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geraldo Perdomo | 4.9 | .962 | .226 | .046 | .110 | .566 | .520 | .317 | .405 | .470 | .874 |
| Corbin Carroll | 4.8 | .744 | .220 | .116 | .215 | .502 | .844 | .309 | .390 | .570 | .960 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 4.6 | 1.004 | .242 | .018 | .129 | .447 | .624 | .336 | .405 | .496 | .901 |
| Ketel Marte | 4.5 | .877 | .239 | .033 | .213 | .416 | .561 | .335 | .403 | .568 | .971 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 4.4 | .769 | .201 | .018 | .155 | .535 | .764 | .297 | .387 | .479 | .866 |
| Nolan Arenado | 4.3 | .810 | .223 | .011 | .148 | .293 | .614 | .300 | .354 | .473 | .827 |
| Max Kepler | 4.2 | .725 | .208 | .019 | .138 | .378 | .730 | .288 | .359 | .463 | .822 |
| Tim Tawa | 4.1 | .672 | .198 | .029 | .134 | .340 | .839 | .278 | .343 | .454 | .797 |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | 4.0 | .713 | .205 | .037 | .075 | .388 | .882 | .292 | .372 | .435 | .807 |
Data notes: away starter Gabriel Hughes: only 46 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections