Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

August 12, 2026 · Ryan Feltner vs Merrill Kelly · 85°F

3.0% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies win

35.3%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

64.7%

Fair line (home)

-183

Proj. total

11.5

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Colorado Rockies (mean 5.05)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 6.45)

O/U line

Proj. total

11.5

Over

61.5%

Under

29.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Colorado Rockies	35.3%	+156	+183
Arizona Diamondbacks	64.7%	-170	-183

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.9	.920	.206	.076	.122	.306	.712	.294	.347	.455	.802
Cole Carrigg	4.8	.856	.197	.088	.116	.323	.902	.286	.341	.451	.792
TJ Rumfield	4.6	.822	.219	.019	.142	.386	.717	.285	.352	.448	.799
Hunter Goodman	4.5	.640	.213	.021	.278	.305	1.115	.275	.329	.535	.864
Mickey Moniak	4.4	.708	.192	.052	.227	.222	.944	.283	.323	.517	.841
Willi Castro	4.3	.742	.185	.033	.103	.335	.905	.273	.342	.416	.759
Zac Veen	4.2	.733	.202	.042	.129	.297	.832	.284	.339	.457	.796
Connor Norby	4.1	.642	.189	.007	.115	.329	1.022	.256	.323	.402	.725
Brett Sullivan	4.0	.642	.181	.034	.089	.263	.589	.255	.309	.394	.703

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Geraldo Perdomo	4.9	.963	.225	.047	.117	.617	.501	.319	.412	.477	.889
Corbin Carroll	4.8	.756	.219	.116	.230	.563	.812	.316	.404	.589	.992
Gabriel Moreno	4.7	1.005	.252	.015	.136	.493	.596	.339	.414	.505	.918
Ketel Marte	4.6	.861	.246	.035	.235	.457	.545	.338	.411	.589	.999
Lars Nootbaar	4.5	.764	.211	.020	.169	.590	.735	.302	.398	.499	.897
Nolan Arenado	4.4	.809	.228	.011	.167	.320	.583	.304	.361	.491	.853
Max Kepler	4.3	.734	.217	.019	.149	.410	.697	.294	.369	.479	.848
Tim Tawa	4.1	.685	.188	.029	.149	.373	.809	.281	.351	.467	.818
Ryan Waldschmidt	4.0	.725	.218	.039	.076	.406	.863	.297	.378	.444	.822

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections