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7.3% edge · Arizona DiamondbacksColorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds
August 11, 2026 · Tomoyuki Sugano vs Mitch Bratt · 85°F
Colorado Rockies win
31.8%
Arizona Diamondbacks win
68.2%
Fair line (home)
-214
Proj. total
10.91
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Colorado Rockies (mean 4.60)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 6.31)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
10.91
Over
56.9%
Under
33.6%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 31.8% | +150 | +214 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 68.2% | -164 | -214 |
Colorado Rockies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCarthy | 4.8 | .896 | .192 | .075 | .112 | .279 | .756 | .287 | .337 | .439 | .776 |
| Kyle Karros | 4.7 | .817 | .224 | .029 | .113 | .416 | .955 | .281 | .351 | .428 | .780 |
| Cole Carrigg | 4.6 | .805 | .173 | .060 | .104 | .269 | .921 | .270 | .322 | .412 | .734 |
| Hunter Goodman | 4.5 | .616 | .203 | .019 | .257 | .280 | 1.170 | .265 | .317 | .509 | .826 |
| Willi Castro | 4.3 | .733 | .179 | .019 | .101 | .297 | .997 | .261 | .329 | .393 | .722 |
| Mickey Moniak | 4.2 | .653 | .183 | .052 | .202 | .191 | .981 | .271 | .310 | .493 | .803 |
| Jordan Beck | 4.1 | .648 | .185 | .037 | .118 | .279 | 1.067 | .258 | .312 | .418 | .731 |
| Connor Norby | 4.0 | .601 | .187 | .006 | .112 | .298 | 1.080 | .246 | .310 | .392 | .702 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 3.9 | .634 | .205 | .020 | .116 | .185 | .882 | .264 | .303 | .424 | .727 |
Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | 4.8 | .901 | .244 | .025 | .214 | .509 | .683 | .324 | .400 | .543 | .943 |
| Corbin Carroll | 4.7 | .782 | .235 | .126 | .248 | .434 | .693 | .330 | .400 | .622 | 1.022 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 4.6 | 1.037 | .262 | .013 | .147 | .381 | .508 | .350 | .409 | .525 | .934 |
| Ketel Marte | 4.5 | .873 | .253 | .035 | .244 | .369 | .466 | .345 | .405 | .604 | 1.009 |
| Nolan Arenado | 4.4 | .850 | .232 | .012 | .178 | .270 | .522 | .313 | .362 | .507 | .870 |
| James McCann | 4.3 | .833 | .238 | .012 | .146 | .186 | .753 | .305 | .343 | .478 | .820 |
| Tim Tawa | 4.2 | .723 | .213 | .028 | .165 | .299 | .708 | .295 | .351 | .495 | .846 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 4.0 | .874 | .201 | .045 | .094 | .194 | .290 | .318 | .357 | .469 | .826 |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | 3.9 | .746 | .226 | .036 | .086 | .343 | .750 | .310 | .381 | .468 | .848 |
Data notes: home starter Mitch Bratt: only 35 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections