Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

August 21, 2026 · Nick Lodolo vs Eduardo Rodriguez · 72°F

4.7% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

47.1%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

52.9%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

9.22

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.60)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.63)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.22

Over

52.7%

Under

47.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	47.1%	+131	+112
Arizona Diamondbacks	52.9%	-143	-112

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Nick Lodolo LHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.0	4.2	5.4	1.6	2.5
Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.5	5.1	5.8	2.0	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Nick Lodolo4+ 62%6+ 25%8+ 5%

Eduardo Rodriguez4+ 77%6+ 41%8+ 14%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.8	.774	.211	.046	.177	.449	1.131	.279	.349	.471	.821
Sal Stewart	4.7	.763	.220	.004	.207	.416	.882	.280	.348	.480	.828
Dane Myers	4.6	.828	.168	.006	.112	.367	1.021	.266	.331	.389	.720
Eugenio Suárez	4.5	.562	.169	.004	.228	.396	1.276	.238	.314	.452	.766
Matt McLain	4.4	.632	.189	.005	.135	.435	1.077	.246	.328	.401	.729
JJ Bleday	4.3	.543	.187	.018	.176	.507	.856	.246	.338	.447	.785
Jose Trevino	4.2	.717	.174	.005	.111	.222	.597	.257	.300	.389	.689
Michael Toglia	4.0	.494	.150	.008	.159	.341	1.235	.220	.289	.394	.683
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.9	.690	.145	.025	.077	.259	.690	.256	.309	.373	.682

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ildemaro Vargas	4.7	.874	.185	.039	.100	.238	.516	.276	.326	.405	.732
Corbin Carroll	4.5	.606	.173	.107	.197	.506	.934	.275	.370	.523	.892
Gabriel Moreno	4.4	.863	.221	.014	.125	.443	.706	.310	.388	.469	.857
Geraldo Perdomo	4.3	.743	.149	.038	.091	.506	.573	.273	.372	.406	.778
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.683	.171	.013	.160	.329	.724	.267	.335	.443	.777
Tim Tawa	4.1	.592	.173	.017	.158	.319	.969	.249	.317	.430	.747
Jordan Lawlar	4.0	.587	.167	.029	.101	.301	1.084	.243	.315	.388	.704
Jose Fernandez	3.9	.654	.162	.024	.093	.168	.956	.252	.292	.384	.676
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.8	.593	.166	.025	.077	.322	.998	.256	.339	.389	.728

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections