Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

August 22, 2026 · Rhett Lowder vs Michael Soroka · 72°F

3.8% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

41.8%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

58.2%

Fair line (home)

-139

Proj. total

9.54

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.50)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.04)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.54

Over

55.3%

Under

37.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	41.8%	+158	+139
Arizona Diamondbacks	58.2%	-173	-139

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Rhett Lowder RHP · Cincinnati Reds	4.5	3.1	5.2	1.9	2.5
Michael Soroka RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.0	5.3	5.0	1.8	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Rhett Lowder4+ 38%6+ 9%8+ 1%

Michael Soroka4+ 80%6+ 45%8+ 16%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.8	.749	.193	.065	.169	.470	1.248	.273	.349	.465	.814
Sal Stewart	4.7	.717	.214	.004	.193	.419	.986	.266	.338	.455	.793
JJ Bleday	4.6	.578	.193	.017	.181	.549	1.014	.241	.336	.433	.769
Tyler Stephenson	4.5	.650	.190	.004	.129	.453	1.183	.244	.330	.391	.720
Eugenio Suárez	4.4	.537	.149	.004	.216	.388	1.357	.232	.315	.438	.753
Matt McLain	4.3	.585	.168	.004	.114	.428	1.167	.230	.317	.366	.684
Dane Myers	4.2	.718	.145	.006	.095	.334	1.036	.256	.327	.373	.700
Héctor Rodríguez	4.1	.643	.145	.028	.143	.225	.851	.253	.300	.419	.719
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.9	.665	.142	.025	.077	.266	.767	.250	.307	.366	.673

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	4.7	.720	.205	.025	.140	.658	.855	.271	.379	.439	.818
Corbin Carroll	4.6	.626	.179	.119	.204	.556	.836	.283	.378	.541	.919
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.875	.231	.015	.123	.493	.636	.314	.395	.473	.868
Geraldo Perdomo	4.4	.759	.156	.053	.097	.593	.507	.284	.389	.432	.821
Nolan Arenado	4.3	.697	.190	.015	.166	.347	.650	.274	.339	.458	.797
Tim Tawa	4.2	.617	.169	.018	.155	.352	.912	.253	.322	.430	.751
Ildemaro Vargas	4.1	.744	.167	.046	.081	.254	.403	.276	.329	.409	.738
Jose Fernandez	4.0	.693	.169	.024	.096	.175	.873	.262	.300	.397	.697
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.8	.615	.172	.025	.081	.356	.943	.262	.342	.398	.740

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections