Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

August 23, 2026 · Andrew Abbott vs Mitch Bratt · 72°F

0.8% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

45.3%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

54.7%

Fair line (home)

-121

Proj. total

9.31

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.53)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.77)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.31

Over

53.4%

Under

46.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	45.3%	+120	+121
Arizona Diamondbacks	54.7%	-130	-121

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Andrew Abbott LHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.1	3.9	5.7	2.0	2.7
Mitch Bratt LHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	4.6	4.4	4.7	1.5	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Andrew Abbott4+ 55%6+ 19%8+ 4%

Mitch Bratt4+ 65%6+ 27%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.8	.735	.206	.048	.175	.444	1.164	.270	.343	.461	.804
Sal Stewart	4.7	.727	.224	.004	.213	.409	.907	.275	.344	.481	.825
Dane Myers	4.6	.785	.169	.007	.109	.372	1.078	.257	.325	.380	.704
Tyler Stephenson	4.5	.657	.190	.005	.147	.437	1.104	.250	.330	.410	.740
Eugenio Suárez	4.4	.532	.160	.002	.231	.369	1.286	.236	.312	.454	.766
Matt McLain	4.3	.594	.181	.005	.121	.432	1.082	.238	.324	.385	.708
JJ Bleday	4.2	.522	.182	.016	.174	.507	.835	.247	.343	.450	.793
Will Banfield	4.0	.625	.160	.006	.093	.165	.989	.230	.267	.347	.614
Héctor Rodríguez	3.9	.616	.143	.029	.157	.211	.757	.257	.301	.440	.741

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ildemaro Vargas	4.7	.873	.195	.035	.101	.270	.471	.276	.324	.406	.730
Corbin Carroll	4.5	.603	.174	.110	.210	.559	.865	.278	.374	.538	.911
Gabriel Moreno	4.4	.839	.224	.016	.130	.472	.646	.306	.384	.470	.854
Geraldo Perdomo	4.3	.732	.154	.036	.103	.551	.537	.274	.373	.417	.790
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.660	.184	.013	.183	.360	.679	.271	.338	.468	.806
Tim Tawa	4.1	.596	.165	.019	.163	.343	.925	.251	.317	.434	.752
Jordan Lawlar	4.0	.586	.176	.029	.118	.331	1.031	.249	.319	.410	.730
James McCann	3.9	.632	.172	.009	.137	.221	.902	.261	.309	.425	.734
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.8	.593	.163	.026	.083	.344	.970	.255	.332	.391	.723

Data notes: home starter Mitch Bratt: only 42 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections