Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

August 25, 2026 · Clay Holmes vs Brandon Pfaadt · 72°F

3.7% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Chicago Cubs win

47.0%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

53.0%

Fair line (home)

-113

Proj. total

9.67

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 4.80)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.87)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.67

Over

56.5%

Under

36.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	47.0%	-107	+113
Arizona Diamondbacks	53.0%	-101	-113

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Clay Holmes RHP · Chicago Cubs	4.9	3.5	5.6	2.4	2.6
Brandon Pfaadt RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	4.0	3.2	4.5	1.2	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Clay Holmes4+ 47%6+ 13%8+ 2%

Brandon Pfaadt4+ 40%6+ 9%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.9	.732	.214	.058	.206	.363	1.130	.271	.334	.483	.817
Seiya Suzuki	4.8	.732	.227	.015	.180	.486	1.107	.270	.349	.457	.806
Michael Busch	4.7	.674	.203	.029	.171	.473	1.013	.260	.345	.447	.792
Alex Bregman	4.6	.738	.197	.009	.148	.445	.609	.269	.349	.431	.781
Ian Happ	4.5	.600	.187	.016	.137	.515	1.102	.241	.335	.403	.738
Nico Hoerner	4.3	.908	.209	.015	.052	.275	.359	.295	.349	.394	.743
Pedro Ramírez	4.2	.824	.182	.032	.070	.265	.731	.282	.333	.398	.731
Michael Conforto	4.1	.567	.172	.007	.122	.420	1.008	.237	.323	.388	.711
Miguel Amaya	4.0	.616	.172	.010	.101	.300	.836	.247	.318	.384	.701

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	4.8	.749	.214	.028	.109	.689	.845	.273	.384	.421	.805
Corbin Carroll	4.6	.634	.180	.120	.152	.575	.884	.271	.372	.490	.862
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.882	.237	.017	.093	.509	.655	.309	.393	.448	.840
Geraldo Perdomo	4.4	.770	.157	.054	.070	.613	.520	.280	.388	.406	.794
Max Kepler	4.3	.676	.203	.018	.103	.452	.805	.262	.346	.406	.752
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.681	.186	.014	.131	.378	.654	.267	.340	.427	.768
Tim Tawa	4.1	.609	.168	.018	.115	.352	.905	.245	.316	.393	.709
Ildemaro Vargas	4.0	.759	.167	.051	.065	.245	.397	.281	.333	.406	.739
Jordan Lawlar	3.9	.574	.176	.028	.085	.316	1.001	.247	.320	.386	.706

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections