Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

August 24, 2026 · Kevin Gausman vs Merrill Kelly · 72°F

3.5% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Chicago Cubs win

53.8%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

46.2%

Fair line (home)

+117

Proj. total

9.78

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 5.22)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.56)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.78

Over

47.3%

Under

43.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	53.8%	-141	-117
Arizona Diamondbacks	46.2%	+130	+117

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kevin Gausman RHP · Chicago Cubs	5.2	4.4	5.6	2.0	2.5
Merrill Kelly RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.3	4.2	6.0	2.2	3.0

Strikeout ladder

Kevin Gausman4+ 65%6+ 27%8+ 7%

Merrill Kelly4+ 62%6+ 24%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	5.0	.728	.221	.058	.216	.412	1.139	.272	.340	.490	.830
Seiya Suzuki	4.8	.737	.224	.015	.196	.553	1.093	.274	.360	.470	.831
Michael Busch	4.8	.697	.195	.028	.189	.528	1.004	.266	.356	.462	.819
Alex Bregman	4.6	.764	.205	.011	.149	.516	.599	.277	.364	.442	.806
Ian Happ	4.5	.618	.189	.017	.150	.589	1.089	.250	.353	.422	.775
Nico Hoerner	4.4	.942	.206	.017	.059	.313	.353	.301	.358	.404	.763
Pedro Ramírez	4.3	.829	.181	.039	.086	.282	.733	.284	.336	.413	.749
Michael Conforto	4.2	.569	.177	.010	.140	.473	.988	.243	.336	.410	.746
Carson Kelly	4.1	.675	.145	.007	.112	.405	.696	.258	.337	.393	.731

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	4.7	.705	.204	.024	.126	.611	.972	.262	.362	.418	.779
Corbin Carroll	4.6	.593	.170	.116	.194	.505	.978	.266	.353	.509	.862
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.846	.221	.016	.110	.440	.726	.298	.372	.444	.815
Geraldo Perdomo	4.4	.743	.150	.056	.086	.538	.590	.274	.370	.411	.781
Max Kepler	4.3	.622	.182	.016	.121	.385	.900	.244	.317	.394	.711
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.669	.166	.013	.149	.309	.724	.262	.322	.430	.752
Tim Tawa	4.0	.582	.162	.016	.151	.307	.988	.245	.307	.419	.726
Ildemaro Vargas	3.9	.720	.157	.047	.076	.215	.439	.271	.317	.401	.717
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.8	.589	.159	.026	.071	.321	1.050	.246	.319	.369	.688

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections