Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

August 31, 2026 · Aaron Nola vs Brandon Pfaadt · 72°F

3.6% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Philadelphia Phillies win

47.6%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

52.4%

Fair line (home)

-110

Proj. total

9.74

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.89)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.86)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.74

Over

56.7%

Under

43.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	47.6%	-109	+110
Arizona Diamondbacks	52.4%	+101	-110

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Aaron Nola RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.0	4.2	5.7	1.8	2.7
Brandon Pfaadt RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	4.1	3.0	4.8	1.2	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Aaron Nola4+ 62%6+ 25%8+ 6%

Brandon Pfaadt4+ 35%6+ 7%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.9	.546	.145	.010	.296	.703	1.383	.239	.355	.492	.848
Trea Turner	4.8	.910	.213	.026	.132	.287	.849	.286	.334	.433	.768
Bryce Harper	4.7	.700	.241	.018	.201	.586	.914	.285	.379	.501	.880
Luis Arraez	4.6	1.100	.200	.037	.052	.227	.184	.322	.360	.422	.781
Alec Bohm	4.5	.858	.207	.012	.111	.271	.606	.286	.336	.421	.757
Bryson Stott	4.4	.767	.183	.037	.088	.377	.661	.272	.339	.403	.742
Brandon Marsh	4.3	.726	.198	.025	.117	.348	1.045	.274	.338	.429	.767
Justin Crawford	4.2	.857	.176	.033	.052	.249	.726	.289	.336	.392	.729
Garrett Stubbs	4.0	.634	.141	.009	.078	.297	.897	.234	.300	.340	.640

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Geraldo Perdomo	4.7	.831	.171	.060	.098	.536	.660	.282	.372	.425	.796
Corbin Carroll	4.6	.621	.181	.119	.195	.467	.997	.274	.355	.520	.875
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.861	.227	.014	.113	.410	.749	.302	.370	.449	.820
Ketel Marte	4.4	.715	.202	.029	.196	.398	.716	.291	.363	.508	.871
Lars Nootbaar	4.3	.643	.183	.020	.120	.525	.906	.261	.356	.418	.774
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.698	.172	.015	.159	.302	.734	.273	.332	.450	.782
Tim Tawa	4.0	.589	.168	.020	.142	.285	1.012	.246	.304	.417	.721
Ildemaro Vargas	3.9	.735	.158	.044	.073	.208	.448	.274	.318	.400	.718
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.8	.598	.165	.028	.079	.290	1.079	.251	.319	.383	.703

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections