Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

August 26, 2026 · Matthew Boyd vs Eduardo Rodriguez · 72°F

1.6% edge · Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs win

53.5%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

46.5%

Fair line (home)

+115

Proj. total

9.05

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 4.82)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.23)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.05

Over

51.4%

Under

48.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	53.5%	-112	-115
Arizona Diamondbacks	46.5%	+104	+115

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Matthew Boyd LHP · Chicago Cubs	5.4	4.3	5.6	1.5	2.4
Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.4	4.3	6.0	1.9	2.8

Strikeout ladder

Matthew Boyd4+ 64%6+ 26%8+ 6%

Eduardo Rodriguez4+ 63%6+ 25%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.9	.721	.212	.058	.211	.401	1.128	.271	.338	.488	.826
Seiya Suzuki	4.8	.732	.225	.014	.184	.543	1.082	.275	.361	.467	.827
Alex Bregman	4.7	.746	.201	.010	.153	.508	.616	.270	.356	.435	.791
Michael Busch	4.5	.661	.193	.028	.180	.503	.972	.266	.354	.463	.817
Nico Hoerner	4.4	.941	.205	.015	.059	.308	.368	.298	.353	.398	.751
Tyrone Taylor	4.3	.669	.207	.020	.131	.239	.857	.253	.302	.411	.713
Pedro Ramírez	4.2	.813	.187	.024	.079	.258	.726	.280	.329	.400	.729
Carson Kelly	4.1	.669	.146	.007	.117	.408	.711	.255	.334	.394	.728
Gabriel Arias	4.0	.575	.151	.017	.123	.254	1.211	.232	.286	.381	.667

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ildemaro Vargas	4.6	.847	.179	.035	.084	.223	.490	.265	.309	.380	.689
Corbin Carroll	4.5	.583	.173	.113	.196	.480	.873	.271	.358	.521	.879
Geraldo Perdomo	4.4	.763	.150	.033	.096	.476	.547	.272	.362	.403	.765
Nolan Arenado	4.3	.676	.181	.014	.162	.320	.695	.265	.328	.443	.770
Tim Tawa	4.2	.594	.172	.017	.158	.306	.954	.246	.307	.423	.731
Jose Fernandez	4.1	.678	.172	.025	.099	.179	.935	.253	.291	.387	.678
James McCann	3.9	.655	.170	.009	.124	.194	.913	.259	.304	.410	.715
Jordan Lawlar	3.8	.557	.168	.025	.096	.276	1.017	.242	.307	.386	.694
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.7	.569	.161	.027	.075	.317	.962	.251	.329	.383	.712

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections