Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

September 1, 2026 · Jesús Luzardo vs Eduardo Rodriguez · 72°F

0.0% edge · Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies win

53.8%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

46.2%

Fair line (home)

+116

Proj. total

9.25

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.95)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.30)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.25

Over

60.3%

Under

39.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	53.8%	-122	-116
Arizona Diamondbacks	46.2%	+112	+116

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jesús Luzardo LHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.6	5.6	5.6	1.9	2.5
Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.4	4.1	6.2	1.9	2.8

Strikeout ladder

Jesús Luzardo4+ 83%6+ 50%8+ 20%

Eduardo Rodriguez4+ 59%6+ 22%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.9	.530	.136	.011	.301	.771	1.363	.238	.363	.496	.859
Trea Turner	4.8	.909	.214	.024	.144	.320	.817	.290	.341	.445	.786
Bryce Harper	4.7	.698	.232	.015	.195	.652	.905	.284	.387	.495	.882
Luis Arraez	4.6	1.093	.202	.041	.053	.243	.186	.322	.361	.424	.785
Alec Bohm	4.5	.861	.199	.012	.116	.324	.596	.289	.346	.427	.773
Edmundo Sosa	4.4	.752	.183	.039	.118	.183	.874	.264	.304	.413	.717
Bryson Stott	4.3	.761	.174	.038	.090	.407	.632	.278	.350	.414	.764
J.T. Realmuto	4.2	.686	.179	.012	.111	.291	.857	.259	.320	.400	.721
Derek Hill	4.0	.643	.141	.016	.113	.244	1.129	.243	.295	.379	.674

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Geraldo Perdomo	4.6	.793	.172	.040	.089	.512	.754	.269	.358	.396	.754
Corbin Carroll	4.5	.573	.180	.104	.167	.483	1.106	.257	.344	.479	.824
Gabriel Moreno	4.4	.817	.209	.014	.099	.442	.856	.289	.366	.425	.790
Ketel Marte	4.3	.680	.193	.020	.168	.378	.827	.273	.345	.462	.806
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.664	.186	.013	.137	.312	.864	.259	.321	.420	.741
Ildemaro Vargas	4.1	.768	.166	.030	.075	.212	.542	.270	.315	.387	.702
Tim Tawa	4.0	.567	.159	.016	.120	.283	1.117	.234	.294	.383	.677
Jordan Lawlar	3.9	.540	.169	.024	.084	.278	1.210	.230	.295	.362	.658
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.8	.576	.158	.023	.067	.302	1.142	.242	.314	.361	.676

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections