Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

September 2, 2026 · Andrew Painter vs Taylor Clarke · 72°F

9.2% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Philadelphia Phillies win

45.6%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

54.4%

Fair line (home)

-119

Proj. total

9.8

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.75)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.05)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.8

Over

57.1%

Under

42.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	45.6%	-127	+119
Arizona Diamondbacks	54.4%	+117	-119

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Andrew Painter RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	4.7	3.2	5.5	2.0	2.8
Taylor Clarke RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	2.1	1.6	2.4	0.6	1.0

Strikeout ladder

Andrew Painter4+ 39%6+ 10%8+ 1%

Taylor Clarke4+ 7%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.9	.540	.135	.009	.269	.748	1.419	.232	.357	.465	.822
Trea Turner	4.8	.876	.206	.025	.120	.332	.877	.277	.333	.416	.750
Bryce Harper	4.7	.689	.231	.016	.176	.648	.926	.278	.382	.475	.857
Luis Arraez	4.6	1.088	.199	.042	.045	.249	.192	.320	.362	.417	.779
Bryson Stott	4.5	.774	.185	.036	.087	.416	.687	.269	.341	.397	.738
Brandon Marsh	4.4	.739	.188	.021	.110	.403	1.084	.268	.340	.410	.751
Justin Crawford	4.3	.868	.181	.034	.050	.283	.761	.287	.339	.387	.726
J.T. Realmuto	4.2	.658	.179	.012	.101	.289	.892	.251	.316	.384	.700
Bryan De La Cruz	4.0	.655	.152	.005	.106	.266	.962	.246	.300	.375	.675

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	4.7	.728	.211	.028	.144	.641	.854	.275	.378	.448	.826
Corbin Carroll	4.6	.617	.188	.121	.194	.541	.851	.279	.371	.531	.902
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.898	.236	.016	.114	.456	.628	.316	.390	.468	.858
Geraldo Perdomo	4.4	.763	.164	.054	.091	.566	.510	.283	.383	.428	.811
Nolan Arenado	4.3	.710	.192	.015	.161	.350	.645	.277	.342	.458	.800
Tim Tawa	4.2	.636	.181	.019	.151	.332	.912	.258	.322	.434	.756
James McCann	4.1	.701	.191	.008	.134	.218	.906	.271	.317	.430	.747
Ildemaro Vargas	4.0	.749	.163	.047	.075	.230	.387	.280	.327	.411	.738
Jordan Lawlar	3.8	.586	.180	.029	.103	.301	.965	.257	.325	.414	.739

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections