Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

September 11, 2026 · MacKenzie Gore vs Merrill Kelly · 72°F

2.6% edge · Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers win

51.1%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

48.9%

Fair line (home)

+104

Proj. total

9.82

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Texas Rangers (mean 5.08)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.74)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.82

Over

57.8%

Under

42.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Texas Rangers	51.1%	+102	-104
Arizona Diamondbacks	48.9%	-111	+104

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
MacKenzie Gore LHP · Texas Rangers	5.0	4.5	5.3	2.1	2.4
Merrill Kelly RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.4	4.3	6.0	2.2	2.9

Strikeout ladder

MacKenzie Gore4+ 67%6+ 30%8+ 7%

Merrill Kelly4+ 64%6+ 26%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Joc Pederson	4.9	.693	.156	.027	.244	.588	1.009	.262	.359	.482	.841
Corey Seager	4.8	.753	.220	.004	.212	.541	.851	.280	.366	.483	.849
Ezequiel Duran	4.7	.812	.243	.032	.128	.310	.947	.279	.332	.437	.769
Brandon Nimmo	4.6	.787	.201	.025	.148	.432	.879	.281	.355	.450	.805
Wyatt Langford	4.5	.677	.207	.022	.161	.524	.872	.272	.363	.459	.822
Evan Carter	4.4	.649	.180	.041	.114	.465	.905	.254	.341	.410	.752
Jake Burger	4.3	.651	.181	.007	.192	.302	.968	.262	.321	.458	.778
Nicky Lopez	4.2	.827	.141	.029	.021	.310	.595	.267	.328	.335	.663
Danny Jansen	4.0	.502	.155	.014	.143	.445	.863	.229	.324	.402	.726

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ildemaro Vargas	4.7	.898	.183	.041	.081	.266	.556	.273	.320	.388	.708
Ketel Marte	4.6	.760	.211	.021	.179	.448	.765	.286	.364	.478	.842
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.836	.230	.014	.114	.514	.744	.303	.388	.455	.842
Geraldo Perdomo	4.4	.778	.156	.033	.084	.542	.610	.278	.377	.404	.781
Corbin Carroll	4.3	.550	.170	.101	.164	.498	.952	.264	.359	.495	.854
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.662	.171	.016	.143	.360	.761	.263	.333	.430	.763
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	4.1	.705	.185	.023	.117	.264	.744	.274	.328	.428	.756
Jordan Lawlar	4.0	.569	.162	.029	.103	.309	1.137	.240	.310	.387	.697
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.8	.597	.165	.020	.070	.364	1.071	.249	.331	.370	.701

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections