Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

September 12, 2026 · Kumar Rocker vs Brandon Pfaadt · 72°F

0.3% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Texas Rangers win

44.5%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

55.5%

Fair line (home)

-125

Proj. total

10.01

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Texas Rangers (mean 4.82)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.19)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.01

Over

58.8%

Under

33.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Texas Rangers	44.5%	+119	+125
Arizona Diamondbacks	55.5%	-129	-125

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kumar Rocker RHP · Texas Rangers	4.7	3.6	5.4	2.2	2.7
Brandon Pfaadt RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	4.2	3.3	4.9	1.1	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Kumar Rocker4+ 49%6+ 15%8+ 3%

Brandon Pfaadt4+ 43%6+ 11%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Joc Pederson	4.9	.690	.172	.025	.227	.495	1.026	.259	.347	.469	.816
Corey Seager	4.8	.776	.211	.003	.211	.477	.857	.283	.361	.484	.844
Josh Jung	4.7	.865	.234	.015	.139	.277	.904	.289	.337	.445	.782
Brandon Nimmo	4.5	.778	.200	.028	.139	.393	.874	.279	.351	.443	.794
Ezequiel Duran	4.4	.774	.228	.031	.107	.258	.914	.276	.325	.423	.748
Wyatt Langford	4.3	.663	.190	.021	.152	.464	.867	.268	.353	.448	.801
Jake Burger	4.2	.635	.183	.006	.183	.264	.971	.258	.314	.449	.762
Nicky Lopez	4.1	.835	.140	.025	.021	.281	.594	.270	.329	.337	.666
Elias Díaz	4.0	.632	.168	.005	.101	.229	.880	.243	.294	.373	.666

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	4.8	.752	.214	.028	.135	.660	.856	.277	.380	.442	.822
Ketel Marte	4.7	.788	.220	.030	.199	.478	.640	.299	.378	.511	.890
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.887	.249	.014	.118	.475	.643	.314	.391	.471	.862
Geraldo Perdomo	4.4	.797	.165	.047	.084	.570	.520	.286	.386	.420	.806
Corbin Carroll	4.3	.603	.175	.106	.175	.497	.841	.280	.370	.521	.891
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.690	.186	.013	.147	.335	.674	.269	.333	.439	.772
Tim Tawa	4.1	.636	.170	.019	.139	.323	.935	.256	.319	.422	.741
Pavin Smith	4.0	.604	.143	.019	.106	.404	.754	.244	.326	.384	.710
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.9	.638	.179	.028	.071	.358	.961	.264	.342	.393	.735

Data notes: 19/20 lineup+starter talents from projections