Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

September 14, 2026 · Sandy Alcantara vs Corbin Burnes · 72°F

3.4% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Miami Marlins win

42.0%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

58.0%

Fair line (home)

-138

Proj. total

9.4

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.40)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.99)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.4

Over

54.1%

Under

45.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	42.0%	+116	+138
Arizona Diamondbacks	58.0%	-125	-138

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Sandy Alcantara RHP · Miami Marlins	5.8	4.2	6.7	2.2	3.2
Corbin Burnes RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	3.1	3.1	3.1	1.0	1.2

Strikeout ladder

Sandy Alcantara4+ 61%6+ 24%8+ 6%

Corbin Burnes4+ 37%6+ 7%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Stowers	4.8	.647	.198	.038	.165	.456	1.478	.243	.324	.421	.745
Heriberto Hernández	4.7	.616	.174	.016	.182	.469	1.313	.235	.318	.413	.731
Xavier Edwards	4.6	1.007	.148	.054	.035	.424	.631	.300	.368	.387	.754
Griffin Conine	4.5	.654	.161	.009	.160	.439	1.346	.245	.326	.409	.735
Otto Lopez	4.4	.874	.184	.040	.080	.288	.610	.289	.342	.413	.755
Jakob Marsee	4.3	.620	.151	.044	.075	.499	.917	.239	.338	.363	.701
Javier Sanoja	4.2	.781	.210	.041	.071	.259	.395	.282	.330	.411	.741
Joe Mack	4.1	.598	.153	.009	.131	.296	1.052	.238	.299	.389	.688
Agustín Ramírez	4.0	.581	.181	.014	.115	.312	.823	.247	.314	.401	.715

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	4.7	.760	.215	.025	.137	.563	.829	.277	.367	.441	.809
Ketel Marte	4.6	.783	.219	.028	.190	.413	.622	.296	.368	.501	.869
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.883	.239	.014	.123	.421	.611	.314	.384	.472	.856
Geraldo Perdomo	4.4	.804	.166	.049	.081	.490	.491	.287	.375	.420	.795
Corbin Carroll	4.3	.585	.174	.107	.170	.432	.818	.274	.357	.511	.868
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.694	.175	.013	.152	.310	.634	.271	.332	.443	.774
Tim Tawa	4.0	.632	.163	.021	.147	.290	.888	.258	.316	.431	.747
Pavin Smith	3.9	.589	.152	.015	.108	.454	.908	.250	.340	.396	.735
Jordan Lawlar	3.8	.589	.170	.025	.101	.250	.961	.251	.310	.399	.710

Data notes: home starter Corbin Burnes: only 7 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Corbin Burnes: only 6 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections