Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

September 13, 2026 · Cal Quantrill vs Eduardo Rodriguez · 72°F

0.3% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Texas Rangers win

45.1%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

54.9%

Fair line (home)

-122

Proj. total

10.12

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Texas Rangers (mean 4.90)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.22)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.12

Over

59.8%

Under

32.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Texas Rangers	45.1%	+116	+122
Arizona Diamondbacks	54.9%	-126	-122

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Cal Quantrill RHP · Texas Rangers	3.2	2.1	3.9	1.3	1.9
Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.4	4.5	5.9	2.0	2.9

Strikeout ladder

Cal Quantrill4+ 14%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Eduardo Rodriguez4+ 66%6+ 29%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Justin Foscue	4.9	.703	.247	.014	.157	.427	.887	.255	.326	.424	.751
Corey Seager	4.8	.751	.203	.005	.213	.553	.860	.280	.368	.484	.852
Josh Jung	4.7	.846	.231	.016	.147	.305	.906	.288	.340	.451	.791
Jake Burger	4.5	.681	.198	.006	.203	.309	1.045	.260	.317	.455	.772
Brandon Nimmo	4.4	.754	.188	.023	.140	.419	.861	.278	.352	.443	.795
Wyatt Langford	4.3	.646	.199	.022	.158	.514	.837	.271	.362	.460	.821
Ezequiel Duran	4.2	.717	.208	.027	.109	.268	.899	.271	.323	.422	.744
Elias Díaz	4.1	.628	.180	.006	.111	.263	.900	.243	.296	.381	.676
Danny Jansen	4.0	.501	.158	.015	.133	.420	.860	.229	.318	.395	.713

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	4.7	.750	.225	.027	.142	.614	.805	.279	.377	.451	.827
Ketel Marte	4.6	.780	.220	.030	.206	.442	.603	.299	.374	.517	.891
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.879	.246	.016	.124	.455	.607	.314	.388	.475	.863
Geraldo Perdomo	4.4	.806	.161	.052	.085	.538	.483	.289	.384	.425	.809
Corbin Carroll	4.3	.595	.171	.107	.185	.479	.786	.280	.369	.529	.899
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.701	.177	.016	.156	.335	.623	.275	.340	.452	.791
Tim Tawa	4.1	.624	.174	.017	.149	.309	.879	.257	.318	.432	.749
James McCann	4.0	.690	.182	.007	.123	.212	.873	.269	.316	.421	.737
Jordan Lawlar	3.9	.595	.166	.026	.113	.272	.954	.255	.319	.414	.733

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections