New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

September 18, 2026 · Gerrit Cole vs Eduardo Rodriguez · 72°F

2.6% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

New York Yankees win

46.9%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

53.1%

Fair line (home)

-113

Proj. total

9.24

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.64)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.60)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.24

Over

61.1%

Under

38.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	46.9%	-102	+113
Arizona Diamondbacks	53.1%	-106	-113

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Gerrit Cole RHP · New York Yankees	5.4	4.7	5.6	1.8	2.7
Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.5	4.9	5.8	2.0	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Gerrit Cole4+ 70%6+ 33%8+ 10%

Eduardo Rodriguez4+ 73%6+ 38%8+ 12%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Paul Goldschmidt	4.8	.790	.206	.012	.164	.402	1.004	.267	.332	.431	.763
Cody Bellinger	4.7	.807	.192	.026	.172	.434	.637	.281	.350	.460	.809
Heliot Ramos	4.6	.733	.178	.020	.178	.366	1.086	.265	.331	.445	.776
Ben Rice	4.5	.595	.172	.021	.227	.508	.920	.257	.348	.485	.833
Amed Rosario	4.4	.834	.191	.021	.099	.222	.817	.276	.317	.404	.721
Spencer Jones	4.3	.577	.181	.011	.197	.354	1.421	.247	.313	.450	.763
George Lombard Jr.	4.2	.597	.180	.020	.084	.414	.999	.237	.320	.364	.683
Austin Wells	4.1	.507	.157	.006	.158	.392	.963	.228	.308	.405	.713
Anthony Volpe	4.0	.548	.177	.023	.107	.332	.848	.238	.306	.389	.695

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	4.6	.665	.180	.022	.163	.515	.964	.254	.341	.429	.770
Ketel Marte	4.5	.685	.192	.024	.221	.369	.736	.276	.342	.497	.839
Gabriel Moreno	4.4	.779	.207	.013	.151	.382	.728	.290	.358	.464	.821
Geraldo Perdomo	4.3	.715	.142	.044	.096	.445	.602	.263	.348	.400	.747
Pavin Smith	4.2	.561	.152	.012	.143	.412	1.111	.232	.311	.394	.705
Nolan Arenado	4.1	.612	.154	.011	.179	.270	.745	.254	.309	.443	.752
Corbin Carroll	4.0	.491	.142	.080	.188	.370	.888	.255	.333	.499	.832
Jesús Sánchez	3.8	.588	.176	.014	.148	.258	.900	.261	.318	.444	.762
Tim Tawa	3.7	.508	.131	.018	.149	.245	.941	.233	.288	.411	.699

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections