Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

September 16, 2026 · Ryan Gusto vs Merrill Kelly · 75°F

0.6% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Miami Marlins win

44.2%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

55.8%

Fair line (home)

-126

Proj. total

9.82

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.77)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.05)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.82

Over

47.8%

Under

42.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	44.2%	+119	+126
Arizona Diamondbacks	55.8%	-129	-126

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Ryan Gusto RHP · Miami Marlins	3.7	2.6	4.1	1.6	2.0
Merrill Kelly RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.4	4.4	6.0	2.0	2.8

Strikeout ladder

Ryan Gusto4+ 27%6+ 5%8+ 0%

Merrill Kelly4+ 66%6+ 28%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Stowers	4.9	.656	.208	.034	.211	.482	1.345	.255	.337	.463	.800
Heriberto Hernández	4.8	.650	.200	.018	.206	.485	1.173	.252	.333	.453	.786
Otto Lopez	4.7	.957	.209	.048	.086	.298	.568	.300	.350	.430	.780
Griffin Conine	4.5	.673	.167	.009	.196	.442	1.259	.257	.336	.447	.782
Javier Sanoja	4.4	.822	.244	.042	.086	.268	.357	.287	.333	.428	.761
Jakob Marsee	4.3	.633	.154	.045	.106	.526	.831	.250	.351	.400	.751
Xavier Edwards	4.2	.913	.136	.048	.038	.409	.520	.299	.370	.390	.760
Joe Mack	4.1	.616	.150	.008	.159	.306	.968	.246	.307	.416	.723
Esteury Ruiz	4.0	.583	.165	.019	.096	.335	.989	.240	.317	.376	.692

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	4.7	.714	.206	.023	.140	.658	.865	.267	.373	.433	.807
Ketel Marte	4.6	.730	.212	.025	.195	.480	.651	.285	.368	.492	.860
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.839	.217	.012	.124	.477	.674	.298	.379	.451	.830
Geraldo Perdomo	4.4	.757	.149	.044	.083	.581	.524	.274	.379	.403	.781
Corbin Carroll	4.3	.566	.171	.100	.182	.489	.850	.271	.363	.516	.878
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.658	.173	.012	.157	.343	.691	.263	.331	.438	.770
Jesús Sánchez	4.1	.640	.195	.015	.132	.349	.875	.266	.337	.434	.771
Pavin Smith	4.0	.558	.148	.012	.109	.522	.988	.241	.344	.386	.729
Tim Tawa	3.9	.567	.150	.017	.129	.329	.890	.246	.316	.409	.725

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections