Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

September 15, 2026 · Janson Junk vs Michael Soroka · 72°F

1.5% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Miami Marlins win

41.1%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

58.9%

Fair line (home)

-143

Proj. total

9.39

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.35)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.03)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.39

Over

53.7%

Under

46.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	41.1%	+130	+143
Arizona Diamondbacks	58.9%	-141	-143

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Janson Junk RHP · Miami Marlins	4.6	2.8	5.5	1.4	2.6
Michael Soroka RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.0	4.7	4.9	1.6	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Janson Junk4+ 31%6+ 6%8+ 1%

Michael Soroka4+ 72%6+ 34%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Stowers	4.8	.615	.196	.029	.187	.459	1.444	.241	.326	.432	.758
Heriberto Hernández	4.7	.609	.177	.017	.187	.475	1.272	.238	.325	.424	.749
Otto Lopez	4.6	.912	.196	.039	.080	.291	.628	.290	.342	.411	.753
Griffin Conine	4.5	.622	.158	.009	.173	.425	1.357	.242	.324	.416	.740
Javier Sanoja	4.4	.792	.234	.043	.073	.257	.407	.280	.326	.412	.739
Jakob Marsee	4.3	.594	.143	.042	.083	.513	.893	.236	.342	.366	.708
Agustín Ramírez	4.2	.579	.204	.015	.122	.331	.885	.244	.314	.403	.718
Graham Pauley	4.0	.541	.173	.019	.114	.319	.951	.230	.299	.380	.679
Deyvison De Los Santos	3.9	.640	.144	.010	.128	.201	.859	.251	.297	.400	.697

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	4.7	.763	.204	.023	.148	.549	.783	.276	.365	.445	.810
Ketel Marte	4.6	.785	.206	.026	.192	.404	.583	.293	.363	.495	.859
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.867	.236	.011	.125	.403	.595	.308	.376	.465	.841
Geraldo Perdomo	4.4	.790	.161	.048	.085	.481	.470	.283	.370	.416	.785
Corbin Carroll	4.3	.583	.175	.095	.180	.418	.787	.272	.353	.511	.863
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.675	.180	.013	.169	.299	.628	.271	.330	.457	.787
Jesús Sánchez	4.0	.682	.206	.015	.130	.294	.801	.279	.338	.447	.785
Pavin Smith	3.9	.574	.151	.015	.113	.433	.892	.246	.332	.395	.728
Jordan Lawlar	3.8	.584	.177	.022	.114	.248	.928	.256	.315	.416	.731

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections