New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

September 19, 2026 · Cam Schlittler vs Brandon Pfaadt · 72°F

9.4% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

New York Yankees win

50.8%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

49.2%

Fair line (home)

+103

Proj. total

8.82

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.58)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.23)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.82

Over

56.9%

Under

43.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	50.8%	-159	-103
Arizona Diamondbacks	49.2%	+146	+103

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Cam Schlittler RHP · New York Yankees	5.3	5.4	4.9	2.1	2.3
Brandon Pfaadt RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	4.4	3.7	4.7	1.2	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Cam Schlittler4+ 81%6+ 47%8+ 17%

Brandon Pfaadt4+ 52%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.8	.661	.177	.023	.251	.480	.983	.262	.345	.491	.837
Cody Bellinger	4.7	.795	.200	.029	.183	.382	.654	.282	.344	.470	.814
Luis García Jr.	4.6	.779	.205	.027	.220	.219	.709	.283	.320	.495	.815
Heliot Ramos	4.5	.716	.174	.021	.163	.314	1.064	.262	.324	.435	.759
George Lombard Jr.	4.4	.633	.202	.020	.091	.379	1.065	.241	.315	.372	.687
Austin Wells	4.3	.539	.159	.005	.169	.371	1.002	.227	.302	.403	.706
Anthony Volpe	4.2	.603	.190	.024	.115	.302	.889	.244	.304	.396	.700
Ryan McMahon	4.0	.540	.152	.005	.131	.400	1.164	.230	.311	.384	.696
José Caballero	3.9	.608	.154	.006	.089	.304	.906	.242	.313	.364	.677

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	4.6	.619	.179	.018	.133	.580	1.059	.238	.338	.392	.730
Ketel Marte	4.5	.658	.178	.023	.179	.425	.826	.259	.338	.449	.787
Gabriel Moreno	4.4	.744	.202	.009	.124	.440	.817	.277	.356	.429	.785
Geraldo Perdomo	4.3	.688	.138	.042	.082	.520	.668	.257	.356	.383	.739
Corbin Carroll	4.2	.489	.143	.078	.168	.438	1.050	.238	.326	.455	.781
Nolan Arenado	4.1	.580	.154	.009	.148	.314	.839	.240	.306	.406	.712
Tim Tawa	4.0	.520	.136	.017	.143	.286	1.092	.224	.285	.389	.674
Jesús Sánchez	3.8	.555	.165	.015	.120	.300	.999	.245	.311	.404	.715
Jordan Lawlar	3.7	.487	.137	.021	.100	.247	1.178	.218	.282	.359	.641

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections