New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Prediction & Odds

September 20, 2026 · Will Warren vs Corbin Burnes · 72°F

5.5% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

New York Yankees win

42.8%

Arizona Diamondbacks win

57.2%

Fair line (home)

-133

Proj. total

9.05

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.30)Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.75)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.05

Over

50.9%

Under

41.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	42.8%	+103	+133
Arizona Diamondbacks	57.2%	-111	-133

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Will Warren RHP · New York Yankees	4.7	4.0	5.0	2.2	2.5
Corbin Burnes RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	3.8	4.0	3.6	1.2	1.6

Strikeout ladder

Will Warren4+ 58%6+ 22%8+ 4%

Corbin Burnes4+ 58%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.8	.605	.177	.026	.234	.556	1.106	.251	.347	.475	.822
Cody Bellinger	4.7	.773	.200	.024	.155	.428	.717	.274	.344	.443	.787
Heliot Ramos	4.5	.685	.164	.020	.152	.350	1.204	.246	.314	.406	.720
Luis García Jr.	4.5	.748	.193	.023	.180	.236	.788	.272	.313	.458	.771
George Lombard Jr.	4.3	.596	.183	.022	.086	.399	1.155	.228	.308	.353	.660
Spencer Jones	4.2	.565	.174	.012	.164	.338	1.508	.237	.304	.415	.719
Anthony Volpe	4.1	.571	.177	.022	.098	.341	.975	.232	.300	.369	.669
Austin Wells	4.0	.482	.145	.006	.134	.381	1.042	.214	.296	.370	.667
José Caballero	3.9	.586	.145	.004	.074	.332	.964	.232	.310	.340	.650

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	4.7	.673	.188	.020	.153	.615	.944	.258	.360	.429	.789
Ketel Marte	4.5	.704	.203	.023	.200	.445	.711	.280	.357	.490	.847
Gabriel Moreno	4.4	.798	.215	.011	.128	.450	.719	.292	.370	.450	.819
Geraldo Perdomo	4.3	.720	.138	.040	.088	.544	.584	.264	.364	.393	.757
Corbin Carroll	4.2	.537	.152	.083	.190	.466	.913	.258	.348	.497	.845
Nolan Arenado	4.1	.633	.160	.010	.162	.325	.735	.256	.321	.433	.754
Jesús Sánchez	4.0	.610	.182	.014	.138	.319	.943	.258	.324	.428	.752
Pavin Smith	3.9	.530	.140	.013	.122	.466	1	.235	.331	.391	.721
Tim Tawa	3.8	.530	.133	.016	.137	.287	.931	.235	.298	.401	.699

Data notes: home starter Corbin Burnes: only 18 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Corbin Burnes: only 14 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections