Boston Red Sox vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds

July 27, 2026 · Payton Tolle vs Jack Perkins · 87°F

8.4% edge · Athletics

Boston Red Sox win

54.8%

Athletics win

45.2%

Fair line (home)

+121

Proj. total

9.73

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 5.25)Athletics (mean 4.48)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.73

Over

47.3%

Under

52.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	54.8%	-182	-121
Athletics	45.2%	+166	+121

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Masataka Yoshida	5.0	.922	.240	.019	.125	.422	.651	.292	.363	.438	.801
Curtis Mead	4.9	.744	.224	.023	.171	.457	.937	.269	.350	.450	.801
Willson Contreras	4.8	.664	.193	.018	.237	.550	1.153	.274	.379	.506	.885
Wilyer Abreu	4.6	.663	.207	.027	.190	.543	1.050	.267	.357	.472	.829
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.5	.760	.234	.031	.141	.243	.904	.276	.324	.447	.771
Caleb Durbin	4.4	.713	.234	.018	.118	.371	.520	.276	.356	.436	.792
Jarren Duran	4.3	.597	.207	.054	.127	.395	1.077	.255	.331	.435	.766
Andruw Monasterio	4.2	.689	.208	.007	.078	.409	.924	.262	.340	.384	.724
Connor Wong	4.1	.652	.188	.008	.094	.361	.951	.257	.332	.389	.721

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jacob Wilson	4.6	.963	.246	.007	.118	.281	.440	.309	.357	.451	.808
Tyler Soderstrom	4.5	.634	.212	.015	.237	.453	.931	.272	.351	.509	.859
Jonah Heim	4.4	.671	.166	.004	.158	.296	.869	.245	.300	.403	.704
Colby Thomas	4.3	.606	.201	.011	.183	.250	1.251	.250	.302	.443	.746
Tommy White	4.2	.761	.189	.014	.110	.199	.748	.271	.312	.410	.721
Jeff McNeil	4.1	.722	.188	.021	.093	.340	.533	.277	.347	.415	.762
Henry Bolte	4.0	.656	.172	.027	.115	.333	1.190	.269	.340	.428	.768
Alika Williams	3.9	.660	.173	.017	.074	.255	.867	.258	.313	.377	.690
Lawrence Butler	3.8	.544	.154	.009	.151	.369	.967	.254	.330	.440	.770

Data notes: game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections