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6.5% edge · AthleticsBoston Red Sox vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds
July 28, 2026 · Jake Bennett vs Gage Jump · 88°F
Boston Red Sox win
51.9%
Athletics win
48.1%
Fair line (home)
+108
Proj. total
9.85
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Boston Red Sox (mean 5.18)Athletics (mean 4.67)
Totals
O/U line
10
Proj. total
9.85
Over
40.5%
Under
52.1%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 51.9% | -147 | -108 |
| Athletics | 48.1% | +136 | +108 |
Boston Red Sox — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmai Jones | 5.0 | .685 | .199 | .028 | .157 | .542 | 1.299 | .246 | .340 | .412 | .752 |
| Romy Gonzalez | 4.8 | .865 | .225 | .046 | .150 | .294 | 1.141 | .286 | .337 | .457 | .794 |
| Willson Contreras | 4.7 | .709 | .202 | .019 | .236 | .487 | 1.108 | .284 | .379 | .516 | .895 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 4.6 | .678 | .219 | .028 | .187 | .511 | 1.003 | .272 | .357 | .477 | .834 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 4.5 | .783 | .236 | .034 | .140 | .236 | .862 | .283 | .329 | .454 | .783 |
| Caleb Durbin | 4.4 | .735 | .236 | .018 | .117 | .339 | .502 | .280 | .355 | .438 | .793 |
| Jarren Duran | 4.3 | .620 | .228 | .055 | .123 | .370 | 1.037 | .265 | .338 | .448 | .786 |
| Andruw Monasterio | 4.2 | .708 | .204 | .007 | .083 | .385 | .889 | .267 | .342 | .392 | .734 |
| Carlos Narváez | 4.1 | .580 | .177 | .004 | .119 | .405 | 1.071 | .243 | .327 | .393 | .720 |
Athletics — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Wilson | 4.7 | 1.019 | .270 | .007 | .104 | .253 | .368 | .320 | .363 | .456 | .819 |
| Nick Kurtz | 4.6 | .637 | .198 | .015 | .241 | .648 | 1.244 | .281 | .387 | .526 | .913 |
| Jonah Heim | 4.5 | .728 | .176 | .004 | .151 | .280 | .742 | .256 | .308 | .410 | .718 |
| Tyler Soderstrom | 4.3 | .671 | .218 | .019 | .201 | .414 | .761 | .285 | .361 | .506 | .867 |
| Tommy White | 4.2 | .821 | .217 | .014 | .099 | .183 | .633 | .286 | .323 | .421 | .744 |
| Colby Thomas | 4.1 | .647 | .229 | .012 | .154 | .225 | 1.053 | .270 | .318 | .455 | .773 |
| Henry Bolte | 4.0 | .737 | .184 | .027 | .107 | .290 | 1.067 | .287 | .348 | .438 | .786 |
| Alika Williams | 3.9 | .705 | .196 | .016 | .063 | .233 | .747 | .269 | .319 | .384 | .703 |
| Brian Serven | 3.8 | .557 | .156 | .010 | .074 | .309 | 1.019 | .231 | .301 | .347 | .647 |
Data notes: home starter Gage Jump: only 66 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Jake Bennett: only 57 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections