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Boston Red Sox vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds

July 30, 2026 · Sonny Gray vs Mason Barnett · 89°F
13.1% edge · Athletics
Boston Red Sox win
51.4%
Athletics win
48.6%
Fair line (home)
+106
Proj. total
9.89

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

0%7%14%036912151821Runs scored
Boston Red Sox (mean 5.17)Athletics (mean 4.73)

Totals

O/U line
10
Proj. total
9.89
Over
40.8%
Under
52.2%

Model vs. market

SideModelBookFair
Boston Red Sox51.4%-193-106
Athletics48.6%+176+106

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Anthony Seigler5.0.712.219.025.084.6741.000.245.355.368.722
Ceddanne Rafaela4.9.802.252.036.161.265.932.276.326.455.781
Wilyer Abreu4.7.671.214.023.202.5541.027.267.357.476.833
Willson Contreras4.6.649.195.016.228.5131.103.273.374.502.875
Masataka Yoshida4.5.833.214.018.122.375.562.291.360.442.802
Caleb Durbin4.4.719.232.016.117.366.495.275.352.430.782
Jarren Duran4.3.615.205.056.132.3941.040.261.337.445.782
Andruw Monasterio4.2.683.201.006.083.413.885.260.341.384.725
Connor Wong4.1.665.198.007.096.350.942.263.337.399.736

Athletics — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Nick Kurtz4.7.614.188.014.270.6441.450.272.377.529.906
Jacob Wilson4.5.967.257.008.111.248.457.315.358.457.815
Tyler Soderstrom4.4.658.229.018.202.418.950.277.350.494.844
Jonah Heim4.3.691.166.006.141.289.872.249.304.398.702
Tommy White4.2.795.212.016.103.184.762.281.318.419.737
Lawrence Butler4.1.596.185.012.149.3681.105.251.320.426.746
Jeff McNeil4.0.727.184.020.088.307.528.279.343.412.755
Carlos Cortes3.9.618.195.014.128.334.745.269.336.441.777
Donovan Walton3.8.653.152.011.077.297.705.259.324.376.700
Data notes: home starter Mason Barnett: only 52 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Mason Barnett: only 53 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 89F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections