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6.6% edge · AthleticsBoston Red Sox vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds
July 29, 2026 · Patrick Sandoval vs Jacob Lopez · 88°F
Boston Red Sox win
51.3%
Athletics win
48.7%
Fair line (home)
+105
Proj. total
9.87
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Boston Red Sox (mean 5.14)Athletics (mean 4.73)
Totals
O/U line
10.5
Proj. total
9.87
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 51.3% | -145 | -105 |
| Athletics | 48.7% | +133 | +105 |
Boston Red Sox — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmai Jones | 5.0 | .649 | .198 | .027 | .157 | .586 | 1.330 | .240 | .341 | .408 | .749 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 4.8 | .799 | .239 | .037 | .155 | .267 | .969 | .273 | .323 | .446 | .768 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 4.7 | .667 | .211 | .023 | .200 | .562 | 1.046 | .267 | .358 | .475 | .833 |
| Willson Contreras | 4.6 | .646 | .188 | .019 | .237 | .520 | 1.107 | .275 | .375 | .511 | .886 |
| Caleb Durbin | 4.5 | .723 | .230 | .018 | .124 | .382 | .516 | .273 | .353 | .433 | .786 |
| Romy Gonzalez | 4.4 | .743 | .197 | .044 | .140 | .286 | 1.073 | .276 | .330 | .448 | .778 |
| Andruw Monasterio | 4.3 | .697 | .198 | .007 | .089 | .421 | .936 | .259 | .339 | .385 | .724 |
| Connor Wong | 4.2 | .668 | .199 | .009 | .107 | .368 | .969 | .262 | .337 | .405 | .742 |
| Patrick Sandoval | 4.1 | .611 | .165 | .021 | .147 | .427 | .864 | .263 | .347 | .443 | .791 |
Athletics — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Wilson | 4.7 | 1.011 | .259 | .009 | .098 | .316 | .433 | .317 | .369 | .448 | .818 |
| Nick Kurtz | 4.6 | .594 | .178 | .013 | .246 | .757 | 1.333 | .271 | .395 | .519 | .914 |
| Tommy White | 4.5 | .843 | .216 | .018 | .104 | .242 | .736 | .281 | .327 | .416 | .743 |
| Tyler Soderstrom | 4.4 | .630 | .215 | .017 | .182 | .492 | .866 | .272 | .360 | .479 | .839 |
| Jonah Heim | 4.3 | .643 | .164 | .003 | .137 | .318 | .814 | .242 | .303 | .390 | .693 |
| Colby Thomas | 4.2 | .611 | .218 | .013 | .146 | .256 | 1.184 | .256 | .310 | .433 | .743 |
| Henry Bolte | 4.0 | .716 | .179 | .028 | .101 | .361 | 1.154 | .282 | .356 | .430 | .786 |
| Lawrence Butler | 3.9 | .567 | .170 | .011 | .127 | .431 | .981 | .250 | .335 | .414 | .749 |
| Alika Williams | 3.8 | .657 | .170 | .016 | .058 | .281 | .818 | .257 | .318 | .364 | .682 |
Data notes: away starter Patrick Sandoval: only 13 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Patrick Sandoval: only 51 BF vs RHB this season · away batter Patrick Sandoval: only 0 effective PA (3yr weighted) · game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 19/20 lineup+starter talents from projections