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Boston Red Sox vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds

July 29, 2026 · Patrick Sandoval vs Jacob Lopez · 88°F
6.6% edge · Athletics
Boston Red Sox win
51.3%
Athletics win
48.7%
Fair line (home)
+105
Proj. total
9.87

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

0%7%14%0369121518212427Runs scored
Boston Red Sox (mean 5.14)Athletics (mean 4.73)

Totals

O/U line
10.5
Proj. total
9.87
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%

Model vs. market

SideModelBookFair
Boston Red Sox51.3%-145-105
Athletics48.7%+133+105

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Jahmai Jones5.0.649.198.027.157.5861.330.240.341.408.749
Ceddanne Rafaela4.8.799.239.037.155.267.969.273.323.446.768
Wilyer Abreu4.7.667.211.023.200.5621.046.267.358.475.833
Willson Contreras4.6.646.188.019.237.5201.107.275.375.511.886
Caleb Durbin4.5.723.230.018.124.382.516.273.353.433.786
Romy Gonzalez4.4.743.197.044.140.2861.073.276.330.448.778
Andruw Monasterio4.3.697.198.007.089.421.936.259.339.385.724
Connor Wong4.2.668.199.009.107.368.969.262.337.405.742
Patrick Sandoval4.1.611.165.021.147.427.864.263.347.443.791

Athletics — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Jacob Wilson4.71.011.259.009.098.316.433.317.369.448.818
Nick Kurtz4.6.594.178.013.246.7571.333.271.395.519.914
Tommy White4.5.843.216.018.104.242.736.281.327.416.743
Tyler Soderstrom4.4.630.215.017.182.492.866.272.360.479.839
Jonah Heim4.3.643.164.003.137.318.814.242.303.390.693
Colby Thomas4.2.611.218.013.146.2561.184.256.310.433.743
Henry Bolte4.0.716.179.028.101.3611.154.282.356.430.786
Lawrence Butler3.9.567.170.011.127.431.981.250.335.414.749
Alika Williams3.8.657.170.016.058.281.818.257.318.364.682
Data notes: away starter Patrick Sandoval: only 13 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Patrick Sandoval: only 51 BF vs RHB this season · away batter Patrick Sandoval: only 0 effective PA (3yr weighted) · game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 19/20 lineup+starter talents from projections