Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds

August 11, 2026 · Nick Martinez vs Mason Barnett · 83°F

8.8% edge · Athletics

Tampa Bay Rays win

53.9%

Athletics win

46.1%

Fair line (home)

+117

Proj. total

9.89

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 5.31)Athletics (mean 4.59)

O/U line

10.5

Proj. total

9.89

Over

41.4%

Under

58.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	53.9%	-178	-117
Athletics	46.1%	+163	+117

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	5.0	.947	.218	.016	.179	.561	.706	.310	.395	.489	.884
Jonathan Aranda	4.9	.794	.210	.005	.179	.636	1.125	.283	.386	.463	.849
Junior Caminero	4.8	.725	.190	.005	.333	.480	.854	.292	.367	.572	.939
Liam Hicks	4.7	.835	.168	.018	.123	.558	.567	.282	.379	.423	.803
Chandler Simpson	4.6	1.052	.152	.060	.015	.303	.459	.301	.349	.375	.724
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.5	.670	.187	.015	.136	.421	.942	.251	.326	.406	.733
Cedric Mullins	4.3	.612	.166	.023	.143	.438	.907	.244	.328	.410	.737
Richie Palacios	4.2	.657	.163	.030	.076	.523	.762	.253	.353	.376	.729
Taylor Walls	4.1	.575	.149	.028	.052	.498	.970	.223	.322	.323	.645

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeff McNeil	4.6	.832	.214	.022	.112	.315	.471	.278	.337	.418	.755
Zack Gelof	4.5	.681	.208	.015	.209	.331	1.099	.268	.328	.477	.805
Jacob Wilson	4.4	.918	.244	.008	.118	.225	.332	.312	.353	.460	.813
Carlos Cortes	4.3	.674	.215	.015	.176	.328	.669	.275	.335	.471	.806
Lawrence Butler	4.2	.631	.194	.010	.187	.352	.922	.267	.331	.470	.801
Jonah Heim	4.1	.636	.155	.006	.157	.265	.651	.251	.303	.418	.721
Henry Bolte	4.0	.711	.181	.026	.121	.269	1.023	.284	.343	.446	.789
Donovan Walton	3.9	.659	.162	.015	.094	.281	.581	.262	.323	.395	.717
Tommy White	3.8	.690	.175	.012	.101	.152	.544	.274	.311	.415	.726

Data notes: home starter Mason Barnett: only 70 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections