Minnesota Twins vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds

August 24, 2026 · Zebby Matthews vs Jeffrey Springs · 87°F

0.1% edge · Athletics

Minnesota Twins win

57.4%

Athletics win

42.6%

Fair line (home)

+135

Proj. total

9.89

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 5.47)Athletics (mean 4.42)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.89

Over

32.3%

Under

59.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	57.4%	-142	-135
Athletics	42.6%	+131	+135

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Zebby Matthews RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.5	4.8	6.0	1.4	2.6
Jeffrey Springs LHP · Athletics	4.9	4.0	5.6	1.6	2.9

Strikeout ladder

Zebby Matthews4+ 72%6+ 35%8+ 10%

Jeffrey Springs4+ 57%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.9	.901	.231	.015	.125	.475	.708	.293	.374	.439	.813
Byron Buxton	4.8	.660	.201	.033	.345	.377	1.108	.283	.347	.581	.928
Ryan Jeffers	4.7	.710	.209	.012	.225	.510	.809	.282	.370	.503	.873
Josh Bell	4.6	.734	.179	.007	.210	.412	.842	.274	.345	.473	.818
Kody Clemens	4.5	.598	.178	.046	.246	.299	.947	.258	.314	.502	.816
Royce Lewis	4.4	.652	.201	.009	.242	.354	.911	.277	.340	.514	.854
Kaelen Culpepper	4.3	.699	.172	.020	.160	.293	.848	.269	.327	.446	.773
Brooks Lee	4.1	.685	.154	.018	.171	.249	.636	.266	.315	.447	.762
Ryan Kreidler	4.0	.559	.152	.028	.121	.353	1.041	.236	.309	.393	.703

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.6	.805	.199	.028	.156	.283	1.291	.278	.333	.448	.780
Jeff McNeil	4.5	.844	.213	.018	.106	.301	.523	.286	.343	.423	.766
Zack Gelof	4.4	.657	.196	.014	.191	.316	1.171	.262	.320	.459	.779
Lawrence Butler	4.3	.632	.186	.016	.185	.357	1.028	.261	.325	.459	.784
Tommy White	4.2	.781	.193	.011	.141	.165	.694	.283	.317	.444	.761
Donovan Walton	4.1	.689	.171	.016	.105	.320	.653	.265	.330	.404	.734
Max Muncy	4.0	.581	.167	.021	.140	.212	1.155	.245	.295	.415	.710
Carlos Cortes	3.9	.598	.189	.012	.144	.282	.688	.266	.325	.448	.773
Jonah Heim	3.7	.573	.152	.004	.129	.241	.684	.247	.300	.405	.706

Data notes: game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections