Minnesota Twins vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds

August 26, 2026 · Connor Prielipp vs J.T. Ginn · 91°F

2.4% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

58.3%

Athletics win

41.7%

Fair line (home)

+140

Proj. total

9.42

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 5.30)Athletics (mean 4.12)

Totals

O/U line

10.5

Proj. total

9.42

Over

37.2%

Under

62.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	58.3%	-133	-140
Athletics	41.7%	+122	+140

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Connor Prielipp LHP · Minnesota Twins	5.1	5.1	5.3	1.8	2.2
J.T. Ginn RHP · Athletics	4.7	3.8	5.3	1.9	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Connor Prielipp4+ 77%6+ 41%8+ 12%

J.T. Ginn4+ 55%6+ 18%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	5.0	.926	.228	.015	.102	.504	.745	.294	.383	.424	.807
Brooks Lee	4.8	.821	.186	.029	.169	.331	.765	.269	.324	.436	.760
Josh Bell	4.7	.767	.185	.012	.177	.477	.877	.271	.351	.447	.799
Ryan Jeffers	4.6	.717	.205	.012	.182	.519	.842	.278	.373	.471	.845
Kody Clemens	4.5	.609	.178	.047	.211	.315	1.000	.252	.313	.470	.783
Royce Lewis	4.4	.670	.201	.010	.207	.373	.958	.272	.339	.483	.823
Trevor Larnach	4.3	.697	.191	.014	.147	.479	.862	.277	.364	.451	.815
Kaelen Culpepper	4.2	.692	.166	.022	.130	.303	.870	.264	.328	.421	.750
Alan Roden	4.1	.689	.182	.014	.106	.385	.703	.274	.356	.421	.776

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.6	.784	.193	.025	.140	.344	1.359	.271	.337	.428	.765
Zack Gelof	4.5	.655	.196	.014	.181	.388	1.279	.256	.327	.444	.770
Lawrence Butler	4.4	.618	.189	.015	.170	.455	1.119	.253	.333	.438	.771
Jonah Heim	4.3	.657	.175	.003	.146	.311	.827	.249	.310	.405	.716
Tommy White	4.2	.770	.178	.012	.120	.203	.733	.274	.316	.416	.732
Michael Stefanic	4.1	.784	.170	.003	.047	.404	.568	.279	.365	.367	.732
Brian Serven	4.0	.545	.146	.009	.100	.317	1.194	.221	.292	.348	.640
Alika Williams	3.9	.671	.178	.013	.072	.242	.800	.260	.314	.377	.691
Darell Hernaiz	3.8	.681	.164	.014	.046	.325	.590	.266	.336	.363	.699

Data notes: game-time temp 91F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections