Minnesota Twins vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds

August 25, 2026 · Taj Bradley vs Gage Jump · 88°F

3.3% edge · Athletics

Minnesota Twins win

54.8%

Athletics win

45.2%

Fair line (home)

+121

Proj. total

9.36

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 5.07)Athletics (mean 4.29)

Totals

O/U line

10.5

Proj. total

9.36

Over

36.5%

Under

63.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	54.8%	-146	-121
Athletics	45.2%	+134	+121

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Taj Bradley RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.4	5.4	5.5	1.9	2.5
Gage Jump LHP · Athletics	5.0	4.8	5.3	2.0	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Taj Bradley4+ 81%6+ 47%8+ 17%

Gage Jump4+ 73%6+ 35%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.9	.882	.224	.014	.102	.537	.789	.287	.380	.418	.799
Byron Buxton	4.8	.642	.201	.029	.294	.413	1.231	.271	.344	.535	.879
Ryan Jeffers	4.7	.700	.205	.010	.191	.541	.910	.272	.368	.468	.836
Royce Lewis	4.6	.674	.197	.009	.207	.400	1.060	.262	.332	.464	.796
Kody Clemens	4.5	.602	.170	.044	.200	.328	1.034	.249	.313	.459	.772
Kaelen Culpepper	4.3	.707	.168	.020	.135	.317	.963	.259	.324	.414	.737
Brooks Lee	4.3	.709	.162	.017	.146	.281	.713	.263	.318	.424	.742
Victor Caratini	4.1	.705	.134	.003	.119	.347	.802	.261	.342	.397	.739
Ryan Kreidler	4.0	.549	.146	.023	.100	.395	1.117	.228	.311	.365	.676

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.6	.759	.180	.027	.149	.347	1.384	.265	.330	.426	.756
Jeff McNeil	4.5	.796	.202	.020	.116	.379	.588	.279	.348	.424	.772
Zack Gelof	4.4	.611	.179	.014	.195	.385	1.256	.252	.322	.451	.773
Lawrence Butler	4.3	.593	.174	.014	.180	.446	1.105	.251	.331	.446	.777
Tommy White	4.2	.753	.172	.011	.131	.192	.751	.270	.310	.418	.728
Donovan Walton	4.1	.665	.166	.014	.107	.388	.720	.261	.338	.402	.740
Alika Williams	4.0	.682	.182	.014	.077	.256	.839	.259	.313	.379	.692
Carlos Cortes	3.9	.568	.183	.012	.137	.340	.751	.257	.327	.434	.762
Brian Serven	3.7	.502	.133	.009	.106	.300	1.147	.220	.290	.358	.648

Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections