Baltimore Orioles vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds

August 29, 2026 · Shane Baz vs Jack Perkins · 81°F

3.3% edge · Athletics

Baltimore Orioles win

53.5%

Athletics win

46.5%

Fair line (home)

+115

Proj. total

10.02

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 5.37)Athletics (mean 4.66)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.02

Over

42.9%

Under

49.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	53.5%	-137	-115
Athletics	46.5%	+127	+115

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Shane Baz RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.4	5.0	6.0	1.8	2.8
Jack Perkins RHP · Athletics	3.0	3.2	3.1	1.4	1.6

Strikeout ladder

Shane Baz4+ 74%6+ 38%8+ 12%

Jack Perkins4+ 40%6+ 9%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Holliday	4.9	.750	.179	.024	.143	.606	1.085	.255	.352	.408	.760
Pete Alonso	4.8	.654	.193	.004	.286	.561	1.094	.273	.372	.527	.899
Gunnar Henderson	4.7	.705	.203	.032	.206	.538	.943	.277	.367	.491	.859
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.6	.666	.193	.022	.242	.236	1.207	.260	.307	.484	.791
Samuel Basallo	4.5	.635	.172	.010	.243	.410	1.069	.262	.336	.489	.825
Dylan Beavers	4.4	.671	.176	.015	.134	.555	.969	.262	.360	.422	.782
Coby Mayo	4.3	.538	.167	.029	.213	.393	1.193	.247	.324	.472	.796
Colton Cowser	4.2	.563	.146	.007	.172	.477	1.223	.244	.338	.429	.767
Leody Taveras	4.1	.662	.136	.045	.100	.328	.894	.254	.318	.396	.714

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.7	.797	.193	.026	.155	.340	1.311	.276	.339	.443	.782
Jeff McNeil	4.5	.843	.209	.018	.115	.355	.547	.288	.353	.431	.784
Zack Gelof	4.4	.664	.190	.014	.212	.386	1.173	.269	.338	.482	.820
Lawrence Butler	4.3	.636	.189	.015	.190	.434	1.016	.266	.342	.469	.811
Tommy White	4.2	.789	.189	.011	.129	.190	.698	.280	.319	.429	.748
Donovan Walton	4.1	.685	.171	.019	.109	.384	.673	.267	.342	.412	.754
Max Muncy	4.0	.592	.178	.019	.144	.266	1.178	.253	.312	.428	.740
Carlos Cortes	3.9	.588	.200	.012	.144	.344	.708	.267	.337	.454	.791
Jonah Heim	3.8	.577	.145	.004	.140	.288	.693	.250	.312	.415	.727

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections