Baltimore Orioles vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds

August 28, 2026 · Brandon Young vs Jacob Lopez · 82°F

1.3% edge · Athletics

Baltimore Orioles win

49.7%

Athletics win

50.3%

Fair line (home)

-101

Proj. total

9.64

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.93)Athletics (mean 4.71)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.64

Over

45.9%

Under

54.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	49.7%	-109	+101
Athletics	50.3%	-100	-101

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Brandon Young RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.3	4.3	6.1	1.6	2.8
Jacob Lopez LHP · Athletics	4.5	4.9	4.5	2.0	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Brandon Young4+ 64%6+ 27%8+ 6%

Jacob Lopez4+ 74%6+ 37%8+ 11%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Blaze Alexander	4.9	.780	.189	.023	.137	.425	1.310	.258	.337	.406	.743
Pete Alonso	4.8	.636	.183	.005	.299	.557	1.081	.272	.370	.535	.905
Jackson Holliday	4.7	.696	.167	.021	.142	.573	1.015	.253	.350	.409	.760
Coby Mayo	4.6	.579	.184	.032	.239	.419	1.270	.252	.329	.488	.817
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.5	.644	.185	.021	.246	.230	1.170	.262	.309	.493	.802
Leody Taveras	4.3	.697	.139	.034	.119	.341	.963	.248	.311	.390	.701
Christian Franklin	4.2	.635	.144	.021	.076	.493	1.083	.238	.336	.350	.686
Dylan Beavers	4.1	.618	.164	.013	.136	.509	.929	.260	.356	.426	.782
Carlos Narváez	4.0	.539	.147	.005	.127	.399	1.110	.230	.316	.381	.697

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.6	.834	.211	.028	.163	.313	1.236	.290	.347	.468	.814
Jeff McNeil	4.5	.840	.217	.020	.118	.343	.475	.290	.353	.439	.791
Zack Gelof	4.4	.678	.194	.013	.221	.360	1.096	.276	.339	.496	.835
Lawrence Butler	4.3	.655	.192	.014	.196	.404	.959	.272	.343	.481	.823
Tommy White	4.2	.792	.183	.012	.134	.185	.636	.281	.317	.433	.751
Max Muncy	4.1	.619	.184	.021	.148	.258	1.124	.256	.310	.433	.743
Carlos Cortes	4.0	.634	.193	.012	.152	.341	.664	.273	.339	.458	.797
Jonah Heim	3.9	.596	.152	.004	.149	.290	.647	.253	.313	.424	.737
Alika Williams	3.8	.675	.183	.013	.072	.229	.689	.270	.320	.392	.712

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections