Baltimore Orioles vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds

August 30, 2026 · Chris Bassitt vs Jeffrey Springs · 82°F

4.9% edge · Athletics

Baltimore Orioles win

53.2%

Athletics win

46.8%

Fair line (home)

+114

Proj. total

10.04

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 5.34)Athletics (mean 4.70)

Totals

O/U line

10.5

Proj. total

10.04

Over

42.8%

Under

57.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	53.2%	-145	-114
Athletics	46.8%	+134	+114

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Chris Bassitt RHP · Baltimore Orioles	4.9	4.0	5.6	1.7	2.6
Jeffrey Springs LHP · Athletics	4.9	4.8	5.4	1.7	2.8

Strikeout ladder

Chris Bassitt4+ 57%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Jeffrey Springs4+ 73%6+ 36%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Blaze Alexander	4.9	.837	.199	.022	.148	.379	1.210	.272	.339	.427	.766
Pete Alonso	4.8	.654	.199	.006	.340	.499	.981	.284	.369	.575	.944
Gunnar Henderson	4.7	.713	.210	.037	.235	.461	.880	.286	.362	.523	.884
Coby Mayo	4.6	.611	.185	.033	.273	.368	1.180	.265	.330	.521	.851
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.5	.676	.193	.022	.267	.207	1.099	.275	.314	.521	.836
Leody Taveras	4.3	.727	.152	.038	.130	.313	.900	.260	.317	.414	.731
Christian Franklin	4.2	.680	.153	.021	.090	.445	1.031	.251	.336	.375	.711
Carlos Narváez	4.1	.570	.165	.004	.145	.376	1.071	.238	.314	.401	.715
Colton Cowser	4.0	.548	.143	.008	.191	.421	1.124	.250	.335	.456	.792

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.7	.817	.202	.029	.149	.344	1.231	.282	.349	.448	.797
Jeff McNeil	4.6	.840	.220	.020	.106	.371	.492	.288	.360	.429	.789
Zack Gelof	4.5	.685	.192	.014	.201	.389	1.116	.271	.342	.475	.818
Lawrence Butler	4.3	.652	.194	.015	.186	.437	.984	.269	.345	.469	.814
Donovan Walton	4.3	.729	.182	.018	.105	.394	.636	.273	.351	.413	.764
Tommy White	4.2	.785	.184	.013	.125	.195	.634	.283	.326	.433	.759
Carlos Cortes	4.0	.640	.204	.015	.140	.348	.676	.273	.343	.452	.795
Brian Serven	3.9	.567	.149	.009	.110	.305	1.073	.233	.303	.372	.675
Alika Williams	3.8	.682	.194	.012	.071	.239	.698	.272	.327	.394	.721

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections