Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds

September 7, 2026 · Dylan Cease vs Jacob Lopez · 83°F

0.9% edge · Athletics

Toronto Blue Jays win

63.2%

Athletics win

36.8%

Fair line (home)

+172

Proj. total

8.96

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 5.28)Athletics (mean 3.68)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.96

Over

49.6%

Under

50.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	63.2%	-190	-172
Athletics	36.8%	+173	+172

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Dylan Cease RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	5.6	7.0	4.7	2.1	2.0
Jacob Lopez LHP · Athletics	4.5	3.4	5.0	2.0	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Dylan Cease4+ 94%6+ 72%8+ 40%

Jacob Lopez4+ 45%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	5.0	.905	.176	.021	.046	.591	1.108	.263	.354	.344	.699
George Springer	4.9	.759	.186	.017	.217	.537	.902	.276	.363	.479	.843
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.8	.829	.227	.003	.222	.590	.602	.311	.403	.529	.932
Alejandro Kirk	4.7	.831	.172	.004	.172	.550	.565	.290	.379	.462	.841
Kazuma Okamoto	4.5	.610	.186	.004	.235	.426	1.055	.254	.332	.475	.807
Nathan Lukes	4.4	.818	.194	.012	.127	.370	.646	.286	.352	.435	.787
Ernie Clement	4.3	.858	.228	.018	.098	.203	.412	.294	.332	.429	.761
Andrés Giménez	4.2	.728	.177	.012	.111	.245	.744	.266	.326	.404	.730
Myles Straw	4.1	.706	.180	.018	.042	.364	.711	.255	.326	.348	.674

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.5	.681	.155	.023	.126	.353	1.604	.239	.307	.379	.686
Jeff McNeil	4.4	.747	.181	.013	.095	.372	.706	.259	.331	.383	.714
Zack Gelof	4.3	.554	.161	.011	.158	.403	1.419	.227	.304	.395	.699
Lawrence Butler	4.2	.531	.159	.010	.145	.455	1.298	.225	.310	.388	.699
Carlos Cortes	4.1	.569	.166	.011	.132	.370	.991	.235	.308	.390	.698
Max Muncy	4.0	.508	.148	.017	.120	.277	1.404	.214	.278	.361	.639
Donovan Walton	3.9	.567	.141	.012	.083	.382	.830	.230	.314	.349	.663
Alika Williams	3.8	.598	.172	.015	.068	.244	.950	.243	.298	.358	.656
Jonah Heim	3.7	.514	.126	.002	.113	.294	.848	.226	.292	.366	.658

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections