Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds

September 8, 2026 · José Soriano vs Jack Perkins · 88°F

5.1% edge · Athletics

Toronto Blue Jays win

57.2%

Athletics win

42.8%

Fair line (home)

+134

Proj. total

9.59

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 5.31)Athletics (mean 4.27)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.59

Over

45.8%

Under

44.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	57.2%	-175	-134
Athletics	42.8%	+160	+134

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
José Soriano RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	5.2	4.8	5.4	2.0	2.3
Jack Perkins RHP · Athletics	3.0	2.4	3.4	1.5	1.6

Strikeout ladder

José Soriano4+ 72%6+ 35%8+ 10%

Jack Perkins4+ 21%6+ 3%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	5.0	.901	.181	.021	.044	.609	1.091	.263	.358	.345	.703
Nathan Lukes	4.9	.910	.213	.012	.136	.405	.730	.287	.352	.432	.785
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.8	.820	.238	.003	.224	.597	.595	.311	.404	.533	.937
Alejandro Kirk	4.7	.829	.182	.006	.160	.572	.569	.290	.382	.455	.838
Josh Smith	4.6	.709	.183	.018	.103	.494	.848	.254	.349	.387	.737
Kazuma Okamoto	4.5	.603	.182	.004	.228	.425	1.019	.256	.335	.475	.810
Andrés Giménez	4.3	.748	.195	.014	.106	.261	.752	.268	.330	.403	.733
Jesús Sánchez	4.2	.652	.199	.012	.172	.404	.942	.274	.352	.470	.822
Ernie Clement	4.1	.802	.228	.015	.085	.204	.391	.291	.331	.423	.754

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.7	.814	.193	.029	.109	.381	1.343	.272	.344	.410	.754
Jeff McNeil	4.5	.836	.215	.018	.087	.382	.533	.283	.355	.407	.762
Zack Gelof	4.4	.634	.183	.011	.151	.427	1.243	.247	.326	.413	.739
Lawrence Butler	4.3	.628	.186	.012	.137	.496	1.085	.253	.342	.416	.758
Carlos Cortes	4.2	.658	.199	.012	.122	.386	.816	.260	.334	.415	.749
Tommy White	4.1	.776	.184	.010	.096	.185	.717	.273	.312	.399	.712
Donovan Walton	4.0	.649	.159	.014	.083	.401	.678	.255	.340	.378	.718
Alika Williams	3.9	.684	.197	.017	.063	.251	.785	.267	.321	.384	.705
Jonah Heim	3.8	.579	.143	.003	.111	.298	.713	.242	.307	.382	.689

Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections