Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics — Prediction & Odds

September 9, 2026 · Braydon Fisher vs Brady Basso · 94°F

5.1% edge · Athletics

Toronto Blue Jays win

55.7%

Athletics win

44.3%

Fair line (home)

+126

Proj. total

9.04

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.93)Athletics (mean 4.11)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.04

Over

40.9%

Under

59.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	55.7%	-163	-126
Athletics	44.3%	+150	+126

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Braydon Fisher RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	2.1	2.5	2.0	0.9	0.9
Brady Basso LHP · Athletics	2.2	1.6	2.5	0.6	1.0

Strikeout ladder

Braydon Fisher4+ 22%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Brady Basso4+ 6%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.9	.938	.187	.021	.043	.514	1.040	.273	.353	.355	.708
Charles McAdoo	4.8	.754	.190	.021	.162	.347	1.179	.255	.314	.418	.733
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.7	.842	.227	.004	.214	.559	.575	.315	.403	.530	.934
Alejandro Kirk	4.6	.831	.184	.006	.155	.511	.538	.291	.375	.455	.831
Kazuma Okamoto	4.5	.617	.188	.004	.228	.404	.999	.258	.332	.476	.808
Andrés Giménez	4.4	.762	.196	.012	.108	.245	.735	.268	.325	.403	.728
Ernie Clement	4.3	.862	.232	.019	.088	.189	.391	.298	.333	.430	.763
Brandon Valenzuela	4.1	.589	.155	.006	.145	.337	1.023	.237	.304	.396	.701
Myles Straw	4.0	.714	.184	.017	.042	.330	.673	.261	.325	.355	.680

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.6	.760	.182	.028	.138	.360	1.353	.267	.335	.423	.759
Lawrence Butler	4.5	.621	.187	.013	.168	.483	1.143	.249	.333	.430	.764
Zack Gelof	4.4	.607	.177	.012	.179	.392	1.220	.248	.322	.436	.757
Carlos Cortes	4.3	.635	.199	.011	.144	.373	.827	.256	.327	.425	.752
Tommy White	4.2	.745	.181	.010	.113	.184	.742	.266	.304	.403	.707
Max Muncy	4.0	.568	.161	.018	.134	.280	1.199	.237	.301	.399	.700
Donovan Walton	3.9	.626	.155	.013	.096	.384	.677	.254	.337	.388	.724
Brian Serven	3.8	.515	.142	.008	.105	.313	1.146	.221	.293	.357	.650
Alika Williams	3.7	.627	.179	.015	.071	.232	.737	.260	.314	.384	.698

Data notes: home starter Brady Basso: only 58 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 94F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections